PANAJI
As India approaches its 2024 general elections, the BJP-led NDA is eying a single-party majority under the leadership of Narendra Modi. However, in Goa -- from where Modi prefers to launch the poll campaign -- for BJP, shift in vote share is a cause of concern. While the voter share for the saffron party has fluctuated during the Lok Sabha polls over the years, the data shows that the Indian National Congress (INC) has managed to grasp the mood of electorate.
Though, in North BJP candidate has managed to have increased high-margin wins or in South, its candidate had tough time with minimal loss and win margin, the party has overall not been able to bring the transformative in its percentage of vote share. From 54.1 per cent votes in 2014, it’s electoral share dropped to 51.19 per cent in 2019. However, the jump is massive in a decade compared to 2009, when it got only 44.8 per cent votes.
On the other hand, against the backdrop where the Opposition, primarily the Congress, remains fragmented and seemingly unable to counter the BJP's narrative and electoral strategies effectively -- be it Lok Sabha or Assembly elections, its voting pattern has seen a positive jump. In 2019, party got hold of 42.92 per cent of electorate as against 37 per cent in 2014 and 22 per cent in 2009 -- the year, the party contested polls in alliance with NCP.
Understanding these shifts is crucial for grasping future electoral strategies and evolving voter preferences, especially when BJP has set a target to attract 61 per cent vote share this election.
The 2014 elections marked a significant victory for the BJP, wherein the party won both the seats -- North and South -- with candidates -- Shripad Naik and Narendra Sawaikar winning with comfortable margin. BJP had contested the elections in alliance with MGP.
This electoral success was underpinned by the party's overall vote share of 54.1 per cent. Naik, who was contesting for the fourth consecutive term -- got almost 67.71 per cent, votes out of total 78.9 per cent turnout. INC, who went solo, had fielded former CM Ravi Naik who faced a humiliating defeat.
The wave of Goa Assembly elections 2012 -- that saw BJP marking history with single-party majority win under the leadership of late Manohar Parrikar- helped the saffron party make its way into South -- the constituency dominated by Congress over the decades. Adv Narendra Sawaikar, who had lost 2009 elections, won with a margin of 7.9 per cent votes against INC’s Alexio Reginaldo Lourenco.
The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has made its way into Goa politics through this election. Though, party lost both the seats and their candidates also lost the deposit, it got nearly 3 per cent vote share -- the trend that continued even in the 2019 election.
BJP’s dominance in 2014, however, did not follow a similar success in 2019, signalling a possible shift by the electorate. But Pramod Sawant led BJP proved this wrong in 2022 polls when it demonstrated its expanding influence by winning 20 out of 40 assembly seats single-handedly.
While BJP’s vote share declined in 2019 along with losing one seat - South, INC made its inroads into its bastion with increased vote percentage. Both the parties went solo.
While BJP’s Shirpad Naik won with a vote share of 57.12 per cent against Congress’ Girish Chodankar (38.40 per cent), INC’s Francisco Sardinha had some tough time against Sawaikar in South. Sardinha, who was contesting his second stint, got 47 per cent votes, while Sawaikar vote share was 45 per cent.
Though Congress voting share had increased by almost 6 per cent in 2019 polls, its fragmented organization diminished its high-vote share margin in 2022 Assembly polls when it won only nine assembly seats, reflecting its waning influence. The party is now left with only three MLAs with six others shifting their loyalties towards BJP.
