Some 120 heads of government and state will kick off a high-stakes negotiation to curb global warming and help poor countries cope with its impacts. The parlay runs until December 11. The objective: the first-ever universal climate deal to include all of the 195 nations under the umbrella of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. Dozens of issues have stymied the negotiations, now into their third decade.
Here are the key points of contention:
Mitigation - All countries agree that greenhouse-gas emissions which drive warming must be curbed. But by how much? The UN has endorsed a global warming ceiling of two degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) over pre-industrial levels. But poor countries and low-lying, small-island states -- which will be hit first and hardest by climate change -- call for a tougher goal of 1.5 C (2.4 F). Timing is important too: To have a 50/50 shot at 2 C, global CO2 emissions must peak by 2025 and drop dramatically thereafter, scientists say.
Fairness - The 1992 UNFCCC charter enshrines the principle that rich countries -- historically responsible for warming -- should do more to fix it. That divide was codified in the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, which went into force in 2005 and placed emissions-curbing targets on industrialised nations. The United States did not ratify the plan. Much has changed since the principle of "differentiated responsibility" was set in stone nearly 25 years ago. Fast-growing China and India have become the world's number one and four carbon emitters, and erstwhile "developing" countries have scaled the economic ladder. At the same time, the European Union and United States have reduced their per capita carbon emissions. Developing nations insist that industrialised countries should do more to cut emissions, having polluted for much longer. But rich countries insist on liability for all. The hugely contentious issue touches on all aspects of the deal -- from setting emissions goals and agreeing on a review system, to the flow of climate aid.
Money -One of the few concrete decisions to come out of the 2009 UN climate conference in Copenhagen was a pledge from rich economies to muster $100 billion (93 billion euros) per year in financial support for poor countries from 2020. The money will help develop technology and build infrastructure to cut emissions. It will also be used to adapt to climate impacts -- like rising seas and spreading deserts -- which can no longer be avoided. Exactly where that money will come from and how it will be distributed have yet to be worked out. More recently, least-developed countries, small-island and developing states have sought additional payment for climate "loss and damage." Rich nations balk the concept of "compensation".
Review - The proposed Paris accord will have as its backbone a roster of voluntary national pledges for reducing carbon emissions. China, the United States and the EU -- which together account for more than half of global CO2 pollution -- have submitted theirs, along with more than 150 other nations. But scientists say the sum of global commitments will not meet the 2 C objective. As a result, some countries have proposed putting in place a process to "ratchet up" national emissions efforts and financial commitments. There are disagreements about when the first review of national actions must take place, how often it should be repeated, and whether there should be a duty on countries to automatically ramp up action.
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The promises
Among the top 10 emitters, here's who has promised what:
China - 24 percent of global GHG emissions.
Envisages a peak in emissions "by around" 2030, and reducing carbon intensity (CO2 emitted per unit of GDP) by 60-65 percent by 2030 compared with 2005 levels. The world's most populous nation will boost the share of non-fossil fuel in primary energy consumption from 11.2 percent in 2014 to 20 percent, and boost the volume of CO2-absorbing forest by about 4.5 billion cubic metres.
2) United States - 15.5 percent
Has pledged a 26-28 percent reduction in emissions from 2005 levels by 2025. Power plants are to cut carbon dioxide pollution by 32 percent from 2005 levels by 2030.
3) European Union - 10.8 percent of GHG
The 28-member bloc intends to cut emissions by at least 40 percent by 2030 over 1990 levels, and has set 27 percent targets for renewable energy supply and efficiency gains.
4) India - 6.4 percent
Plans to reduce carbon intensity by 35 percent by 2030 from 2005 levels, and to generate 40 percent of its electricity from renewable sources by the same date.
5) Russia - 4.9 percent
Has mooted cutting emissions by 25-30 percent by 2030 from 1990 levels, conditional on the pledges of other "major emitters".
6) Japan - 2.9 percent
Has pledged a 26 percent reduction in emissions from 2013 levels by 2030, with nuclear energy -- offline since the 2011 Fukushima disaster -- providing 20-22 percent of electricity by then. Renewable electricity production, including hydro power, would be expanded to a 22-24 percent share, from 11 percent in 2014.
7) Brazil - 2.1 percent
Will cut emissions 37 percent by 2025 from 2005, and 43 percent by 2030.
8) Iran - 1.6 percent
Iran has made an unconditional pledge to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions in 2030 by four percent compared with a “business as usual” scenario. In addition, Tehran said it would reduce emissions another eight percent if it receives financial and technology support, and if what it describes as “unjust sanctions” were lifted.
9) Indonesia - 1.6 percent
A 29 percent cut in emissions by 2030 compared with what the level would have been without any action. With financial and other help, this could be raised to 41 percent.
10) Canada - 1.5 percent
Will seek to cut emissions by 30 percent from 2005 levels by 2030.
Sources: UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), Climate Action Tracker, Climate Analytics.
