Cities seized by rebels. Civilians fleeing from their homes.Murders, abductions, rapes, looting. Foreign forces backing insurgents anddenying they are doing so. Rumors of other regional powers sending in militarysupport. It sounds like a drama we have watched before. Sadly, we have, overand over. Since 1994, when Rwandan Hutu refugees fled there, the provinces ofNorth and South Kivu of the Democratic Republic of Congo have been in anuninterrupted state of armed conflict. From 1998 to 2003, this enormous countrywas the scene of Africa’s first world war, with the armies of at least half adozen countries blasting away at each other while their commanders filled theirpockets.
There are signs that we may be headed be down that path onceagain. Last week, an insurgent force calling itself the March 23 Movement, orM23, seized control of the city of Goma, in North Kivu. It is now marchingtoward the key airport of Kavumu, which serves Bukavu, the capital of SouthKivu, where Congolese and foreign troops are said to be arriving by theplaneload. Something must be done quickly, or a series of brutal andinconclusive battles, probably involving countless civilian casualties, islikely to ensue.
Instead of agreeing to compete on business terms, elitesfrom powerful ethnic groups have for decades, in collusion with factions of theCongolese and neighboring governments, been organized into mafias. They havebuilt market share and acquired titles, concessions and licenses from corruptofficials, run protection rackets and ensured that most markets remain black.
During the long collapse of the Mobutu regime in the 1990sthese mafias became militarized, a process that accelerated in 1994 when theRwandan civil war spilled across the border. Spiraling outward from Goma,smaller local militias have sprung up everywhere in North and South Kivu,preying on populations while claiming to protect their interests. A group whoseorigins lie in the old, defeated Rwandan army, though much depleted, stillroams the countryside.
No level of international pressure is going to eliminate thecore business rivalries between elites from the Tutsi, Nande and Mushi ethnicgroups, just to mention three of most prominent. Nor will it eradicate theirties to Congolese, Rwandan or Ugandan military and political factions.
But the international community must nonetheless try to getit right this time. Instead of acting as a broker between interests in a gameway over its head, it must make itself the champion of the civilian population,demanding that rivalries be demilitarised; that militias be disarmed; that thehapless and corrupt Congolese national army be reduced to a tiny core of vettedunits and rebuilt from scratch; and that the political system be rethought totake into account local aspirations.
This latter point is vital. The present constitution allowsfor a measure of decentralized administration but falls short of devolving anyreal authority. A fully federal system might simply displace the seat ofcorruption and mafia influence to the provinces, but elected, empoweredprovincial and local assemblies would be better placed to negotiate and brokerlocal power relations.
A new political dispensation negotiated with civilianparticipation would almost surely lead to a measure of federalism and provide alocal framework for local issues to be resolved. It has only been in recentdecades that armed hysteria has replaced deal-making and compromise.
Implementation of such a deal will be hard, and will requiresolid assurances that international donor resources will be there to back itup. To succeed, the international community must say, in effect, we’re willingto back any reasonable solution as long as it includes rapid demilitarization,as well as meaningful involvement by communities, including women. It mustinclude arrangements for equitable and transparent commercial relations withinCongo and with its neighbors. It must promise international-justice actionagainst anyone who works against the agreement by committing abuses. And the UnitedNations forces must be relieved of their misguided focus on supporting thenational army and revert to their previous role as objective policeman.
Such an agreement would take time and effort to implement.But if key international actors can be very impatient now and then patient andsteady going forward, the spiral of violence might at last start to unwind.
Willet Weeks is a Nairobi-based regional-affairs consultantfor Development Alternatives, Inc. He has been involved in Congo matters sincethe early 1970s
