The US has reduced the reciprocal tariff on Indian goods from 25% to 18%, which is being seen as positive news. However, an important question remains: will gold and silver become cheaper under this revised tariff structure? Reciprocity also implies that India may reduce its tariffs and non-tariff barriers on US goods.
The revised tariffs mainly affect sectors such as textiles, machinery, and other manufactured goods, and have come into effect immediately. Notably, gold and silver appear to be excluded from this framework. As a result, expectations of any meaningful relief in precious metal prices remain uncertain.
While a reduction in import tariffs could theoretically lower gold prices, the outlook for 2026 remains strongly bullish. Global economic uncertainty and ongoing geopolitical tensions continue to drive demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. For investors, gold remains attractive”but this offers little comfort to the common man.
A projected weakening of the US dollar in 2026 may further boost demand for gold, as it becomes cheaper for buyers using other currencies, pushing prices higher in dollar terms. In addition, central banks, particularly in emerging economies, are expected to continue large-scale gold purchases, raising questions about whether their focus should remain on currency stability rather than gold accumulation.
Major institutions such as the World Gold Council and Goldman Sachs have forecast a further 20“30% rise in gold prices in 2026, potentially taking prices beyond $5,000 per ounce. This suggests that gold has largely been left out of tariff-related relief measures.
In conclusion, while tariff adjustments may cause minor and temporary price fluctuations, broader economic forces point to sustained high gold prices. For ordinary consumers, the 18% tariff reduction offers little tangible benefit.
