From the fish that arrive at Goa's markets to the rains that nourish its fields, a weather pattern that begins thousands of kilometres away in the Pacific Ocean could have consequences much closer to home. The Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS) has confirmed that El Niño conditions developed in June are likely to continue until at least March 2027. Scientists estimate an 85 to 98 per cent chance of El Niño remaining the dominant climate pattern over the coming months.
WHAT IS EL NINO
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon that warms the waters of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. Although it forms far from India, it can influence the country's weather, ocean temperatures and marine ecosystems. According to INCOIS, the current El Niño is expected to warm the Indian Ocean, which in turn will affect marine life. With an increasing risk of marine heat waves, there will be visible changes to fisheries and coastal conditions.
IMPACT ON FISHERIES
For Goa's fishing community, the biggest concern is what warmer seas could mean for fish stocks. The experts are of the opinion that catches of Indian Oil Sardine and Indian Mackerel are likely to see a modest decline during the upcoming fishing season. They also note that the average size of these fish could reduce due to external factors. As sea temperatures rise, fish may start moving to different areas in search of suitable conditions. This will only end up making them harder to locate, thus affecting the livelihoods of those who depend on the sea.
Experts assert that the warming waters may affect Goa's marine environment. INCOIS has warned that prolonged high sea temperatures can increase thermal stress on coral reefs and disturb marine ecosystems significantly. Additionally, changes in ocean productivity and fish habitats may also alter the distribution of commercially important species, with ripple effects across the fishing sector.
TOURISM AND COASTLINE
Tourism is yet another factor that may bear the brunt of El Nino. Being one of Goa's biggest industries, tourism may also feel the impact, although not as directly. Bulletins from the Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS) indicate that developing El Niño phases can induce elevated sea surface temperatures and marine heatwave stress, which occasionally lead to localised rough seas during monsoon winds or sudden depressions. The bulletin also warns that warmer ocean conditions can increase the risk of coastal erosion, flooding and storm surges during severe weather events. Beach shacks, water sports operators and coastal businesses may have to keep a close watch on changing sea conditions, particularly during the monsoon months. At the same time, INCOIS notes that the Arabian Sea could experience relatively calm conditions and longer fair-weather windows, which may benefit maritime activities.
MONSOON OUTLOOK
El Niño is also closely watched because of the way it will influence the Indian monsoon. While there aren’t predictions on how much rain Goa will receive, it notes that El Niño has historically had an adverse effect on the Indian summer monsoon. However, rainfall over individual states depends on several factors, with El Niño being one of them.
With El Niño expected to persist for several months, INCOIS has advised fishermen, maritime operators, coastal communities and tourism stakeholders to regularly follow its ocean forecasts and advisories. These include potential fishing zone advisories, high wave alerts, storm surge forecasts and marine heatwave updates, which can help people prepare for changing conditions at sea.
For many Goans, El Niño may remain a term heard only in weather reports. But for those whose livelihoods depend on the sea, it is a reminder that changes in a distant ocean can influence everything from the fish that reach local markets to the condition of the state's coastline.
