PRABHAKAR TIMBLE
India was all buzz with the fever of Chandrayaan-2, the bold lunar mission to improve the understanding of the Moon and aimed at discoveries to benefit humanity as a whole. It is the vision of the mission to enthuse explorers and scientists to increase human understanding of space and to make lunar tourism possible in future. ISRO is also getting equipped for India’s march to the Sun.
Another significant positive change which made news was the quantum fall in India’s population dependency ratio. The ratio which stood at 82% in 1966 stands today at 49%. This means that the independent population in the age group of above 14 to below 64 is little more than half of the country’s population. India will be in this demographic position for the next 36 years ie till 2055. Both these developments are indicators of growth potentialities. As if to ward off the evil eye, we have black spots as evidenced in mob lynching and nationalist jingoism gathering storm which pull down the nation from the current platform of opportunities. To add to this murky atmosphere, a judge of the Kerala High Court dug the skeletons to make a wicked revelation that ‘Brahmins are twice born, known for clean habits, inherently of sterling character and should be at the helm of affairs’.
Implications of DD
The demographic shift speaks of the impact of human development over the years resulting in decrease in fertility rate, decline in infant mortality and improvement of life expectancy. The growing number of people in the work force and the share of the working-age population becoming much larger than the non-working-age dependents is a potential for speedy economic growth. This ‘demographic dividend’ provides almost unlimited labor for economic productivity. It is equally a challenge to renovate this source into skilled human capital. With the drastic fall in dependent population, greater chunk of savings get mopped into the nation’s financial system to be channelized for investment. Low dependency ratio results in higher purchasing power in the hands of the independent population and households pushing up the domestic effective demand for goods and services in the economy. It is the dominance of the working population which pushes the power to buy at very high levels acting as booster to investors with shining market expectations. As youth forms a larger segment of the population, the tendencies to rebel, risk, innovate and disturb the prevalent equilibrium increases in frequency. Commercializing inventions and innovations in production, consumption, distribution and exchange is a natural concomitant of the age-composition. Economic upswings due to adoption and adaptation of new technology would be common phenomenon.
Along with these positive signs of economic growth, there would be disruption of the old order. There would be issues related to readjustments, retrenchment, surplus labor and redeployment of capital and workforce at micro level. With reduced domestic pressures due to low dependency ratio, rise in women employment and professional participation of women in economic activity is bound to happen. The social disequilibrium could manifest due to beneficial atmosphere for the less privileged such as OBC/SC/ST to access education, employment and entrepreneurship. From the position of victims and victimization by the privileged, the otherwise disadvantaged sections tend to move to assertive politics and economics. Dramatic changes such as postponement of marriage, increase in divorce rate, single-parent households are expected along with the demographic dividend. If the economy fails to respond to harness the growing young population into productive and income-generating pursuits, the nation runs the risk of social turmoil. If the political vision is at mismatch with the young population, the drain of human resource to new global destinations is the resultant possibility. If architecture of political vision in economy is designed by architects in realm of swamis, gurus, and politicians of greed and social prejudice the natural advantages of the demographic dividend would suffer from leakages.
Horoscope on trial!
Dr SY Quraishi, former Chief Election Commissioner Tweet after the Chandrayaan-2 launch “Some countries have moon on their flags, while some countries having their flags on moon” could have been a plain expression of ecstasy but India’s jingoistic elements relished it as a sarcastic reference on our neighbor. Xenophobia has no place in Science as any breakthrough in science belongs to the world and particularly space research is impossible without international collaboration.
If the work of ISRO and Schools of Astronomy can teach the lesson to reject astrology and their inconsequential products such as horoscope, palmistry etc. it would fuel India’s youth to a progressive future. In many parts of the world and with little more rigor in India, the average human being is tied to a number of superstitions associated with the Moon and the lunar eclipse. The lunar cycle is linked to the menstrual cycle. Pregnant women are guided to stay indoors. The belief that the position of the celestial bodies shapes life and destiny is rooted in us.
Those who continue to immerse themselves and their families in blind faith and practices associated with lunar eclipse would remain as kids in kindergarten. It is atrocious that public funding is made available to universities to strengthen and propagate such beliefs and falsehoods and create a research platform. As space research and astronomy institutes are making the Universe intelligible, state-funded universities would work with their Schools of Astrology to multiply the darkness.
In today’s time of ‘demographic dividend’ and missions to the Moon and the Sun, if India’s public policy facilitates the unscientific past to overcrowd the present, we will not be in a position to exploit the advantages of the youth dividend to its optimum extent and bequeath a refined future.
