“The country is saved”, is how an elderly friend reacted when I called him up after the election results. I can’t call him a left liberal but he is a hardcore political person for whom “country first” has been the leitmotif for life. I have known him for a very long time and can vouch for the honesty of his conviction. He was a worried man. We had had many discussions over the years since the Bharatiya Janata Party formed the government in 2014. As elections neared this time, he told me in one of his friendly but very enlightened chats that if the BJP were to get more than 300 seats, then the country would not be the same again; the Constitution would be changed, Parliamentary democracy would be consigned to the dustbin of history; Parliament and the Constitutional institutions would have no meaning and the country would be proclaimed a Hindu rashtra.
No wonder, a large section of intelligentsia, journalists, professionals working in different walks of life, activists with no affiliation to any party, who had been critical of the Congress in pre-2014 era, and even those who were considered to be rightists or supporters of Hindutva philosophy, gravitated towards the Congress. In their opinion, the rise of right-wing fascist politics was due to the decline of the Congress as a robust political force. And if the country had to be saved then the Congress had to be strengthened.
After the exit poll results, gloom permeated their hearts and the subsequent tense two days tormented them no end. But by 10am on June 4, once the results trickled in and it was apparent that the BJP was not getting the numbers that the pollsters had predicted, they were overwhelmed by relief and mobile phones started buzzing with congratulatory calls and messages. The nation has finally survived, was the common call. These are brilliant people who have done well in their respective fields, and wear love for the nation on their sleeves; yes they are not fashionably pompous about their patriotism ” for them India is a lived reality, a commitment, and not a delusional society’s false imagery. For them, nation means pluralism, a free society, freedom to express themselves, where the voice of dissent is celebrated, not mauled; where minorities live with dignity without fear and persecution, where the state is creative and harmonious and not discriminatory, and liberty is the uncompromising cardinal principle of life.
But the traumatised souls of the last ten years are a pragmatic lot. They know that the nation is still not completely out of the woods. It’s only a temporary recovery. The sun has peeped through the dark clouds but the bright sunshine is still far away. The new government has been formed. Unlike the last two, it’s not a majority government. Crutches are needed to run it. The prime minister is theoretically weakened but his team is the same. Though, the coming week will unfold the truth about his real demeanour when parliament will be in session. Unlike the last two terms, the Opposition will be more robust, the Congress will be bolder due to its enhanced numbers in the Lok Sabha; one can see better floor coordination as the results have proved that if the Opposition is more cohesive and united then the government can be tamed.
But with Modi at the helm, overconfidence can be disastrous. It is true that he has never run a coalition government ever since he became the chief minister of Gujarat. He always had a majority on his own and he was never constrained by mundane things in his party and the government. He was the boss and ran both the institutions like his fiefdom. In fact, he so jealously guards his power that he did not tolerate the RSS, and during his time as chief minister he ensured that none of the RSS pracharaks and officebearers would have any say in the party or in the government, and those who dared challenge his authority were brutally shown the door and could not survive.
A similar model has been active in Delhi since 2014. It was his government. Even senior BJP leaders had no authority, their job was to implement what was being decided or ordered by the powerful PMO. Through Amit Shah, the prime minister has total control over the party. Now the situation has changed.
Nitish Kumar and Chandrababu Naidu are mavericks. They know how to protect their interests and demand their pound of flesh. Both have worked with the PM in the past and had their skirmishes with him; together they command 28 seats, which is enough to destabilise the government with the support of others. It’s a relationship of distrusting partners. The PM knows that if any of their demands is not fulfilled then neither will hesitate to pull the rug under his feet and the two of them are well aware that in his quest to get 272, the prime minister can hijack their MPs too.
The election of the Speaker in Parliament will be the first test of the coalition government. If the BJP cedes the Speaker’s chair to a coalition partner then it can be argued that the partners have decided to buy peace and Parliament will have some amount of autonomy in its functioning. And if the BJP carries the day with its nominee then uncertainty will continue.
The second test will be the appointment of the BJP’s party president. RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat’s statements are a stiff reminder that the RSS has decided to not mortgage the party like it did earlier. It has not taken lightly the statement of JP Nadda that now the BJP has become self-sufficient and it is not dependent on the RSS to win elections.
A senior RSS person told me long back that Modi’s priority could be to be the prime minister which is not that of the RSS, whose civilisational project is to unite Hindus. Now is the right time for the RSS to assert itself, when Modi’s popularity is declining and he does not have enough numbers. This battle is serious and it will be interesting to see how it unfolds.
-- FPJ
