The Nifty gained more than 1% for the week after heavy buying on Friday, mainly in metal and PSU bank stocks. The index finished 182 points, or 0.70%, higher at 26,328.55 after touching a new lifetime high of 26,340 during the session.
Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, said the charts remain positive as the index has moved above its earlier swing high. He added that the bullish crossover of the 20-day and 50-day EMAs and a breakout in the daily RSI point to rising momentum.
He expects the trend to stay firm in the short term and suggests buying on declines as long as Nifty holds above 26,000. A clear move above 26,350 could push the index towards 26,600.
Fresh global tensions in focus
Global markets may react to new geopolitical developments over the weekend. The United States carried out airstrikes on targets in Venezuela, claiming that President Nicolás Maduro has been removed. However, the situation is still unclear and investors are waiting for more details.
These events have increased uncertainty, with markets watching possible retaliation and the impact on risk appetite, oil prices and emerging markets.
Crude oil reaction awaited
The Venezuela strikes may affect crude oil sentiment when markets open. Venezuela has large oil reserves and any escalation could disrupt supplies.
However, Reuters reported that PDVSA said production and refining are continuing normally and that key facilities were not damaged. Since Venezuelan exports are already limited due to US sanctions, the immediate impact on global oil supply may be restricted.
Wall Street cues
Indian markets will take direction from the US. On Friday, the Dow Jones rose 319 points to 48,382.40. The S&P 500 gained 12.97 points to close at 6,858.47, while the Nasdaq slipped slightly by 6.36 points to 23,235.60.
Foreign and domestic fund flows
FIIs bought shares worth Rs 290 crore on Friday, but they have sold Rs 7,608 crore in the first two sessions of January.
They were also heavy sellers in December, with outflows of Rs 22,611 crore, taking total selling in 2025 to Rs 1,66,286 crore. Experts expect foreign flows to improve in 2026 on the back of strong domestic growth and better earnings.
Earnings season gathers pace
The December quarter earnings season will begin on January 12 with results from TCS and HCL Technologies. Ahead of this, several companies have issued updates.
Avenue Supermarts will announce results on January 10 after reporting a 13% rise in revenue to Rs 17,613 crore. Marico, Punjab National Bank and Bajaj Finance have also released updates and will remain in focus.
IPO calendar busy
The mainboard IPO of Bharat Coking Coal Limited will open on January 9 and close on January 13. The Rs 1,300 crore issue is entirely an offer for sale by Coal India Limited. The price band will be announced on January 5.
Three SME issues ” Gabion Technologies India, Victory Electric Vehicles International and Yajur Fibres ” will also open this week. Modern Diagnostic and Research Centre will list on January 7.
Chart levels to track
Ajit Mishra of Religare Broking said the Nifty’s move above 26,200 confirms the end of a five-week consolidation. Immediate support is seen near 26,000, with a stronger base around 25,700.
If the index sustains above 26,300, it could move towards 26,500“26,700 and even 27,000. He advised investors to focus on banking, metals, automobiles, select PSU stocks and capital goods.
Rupee weakens against dollar
The rupee closed 22 paise lower at 90.20 against the US dollar on Friday, slipping below the 90 mark due to a stronger dollar overseas.
Forex traders said foreign fund selling and importer demand weighed on the rupee, though softer crude prices and strong equity markets helped limit the fall. RBI intervention may support the currency at lower levels.
Gold and silver outlook
After a strong 2025, when gold jumped nearly 70% and silver more than doubled, both metals may continue to gain in 2026.
The Venezuela developments could increase safe-haven demand for bullion, which may put pressure on equity markets.
Anchor lock-in expiries
Several stocks may see higher trading activity as anchor lock-in periods end.
On January 5, about 6 lakh shares of Om Freight Forwarders and nearly 30 lakh shares of Advance Agrolife will become available. On January 6, around 1 crore shares of WeWork India Management will be freed.
On January 7, Tata Capital will see nearly 7.1 crore shares enter the market, followed by LG Electronics India on January 8 with about 1.5 crore shares becoming tradable.
