The Nifty ended the shortened trading week almost unchanged, though the overall tone remained slightly weak. When markets reopen on Monday, several major global and domestic developments during the week are expected to guide investor mood.
On Friday, the 50-share index rose by 28.75 points, or 0.11 per cent, to close at 25,694.35. Even though the index finished in the green, technical charts showed signs of weakness. A bearish gravestone doji pattern appeared on the daily chart, along with a bearish crossover and a weak RSI, according to market analysts.
The index is currently moving within a narrow range. Support is seen around the 25,550“25,600 level, where the 100-day moving average is placed and has been tested multiple times. Resistance remains near the 25,850“25,900 zone. Traders may continue to operate within this range. A stronger upward trend is likely only if the index moves clearly above its 50-day moving average. In the short term, sentiment is expected to remain weak, with a possibility of further decline.
1. Geopolitical developments
Rising tension between the US and Iran is expected to impact global markets. While Iran’s decision to pause executions of protestors eased some concerns, US officials have indicated that military action remains an option if violence resumes. Reports suggest that the US is strengthening its military presence in the region, including moving an aircraft carrier, air defence systems and fighter jets closer to the Middle East.
At the same time, India is reviewing its options regarding involvement in the Chabahar port project in Iran, amid warnings from the US about additional tariffs on countries trading with Tehran.
2. December-quarter earnings
This will be a busy week for corporate earnings, with more than 230 companies set to announce their October“December results. Several Nifty companies, including major banks, cement firms and aviation companies, will report their numbers. Other well-tracked firms from the IT, banking, energy and hospitality sectors are also scheduled to release results.
Markets will also react to earnings announced after market hours on Friday and over the weekend by some large banking and IT companies.
3. US market cues
Indian markets are likely to track movements on Wall Street. On Friday, US indices closed slightly lower. The Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all ended the session with marginal losses, reflecting a cautious global mood.
4. FII and DII activity
Foreign investors continued to sell Indian equities on Friday, with sizeable outflows recorded for the first half of January. Domestic institutional investors, however, remained net buyers.
Market experts believe foreign selling may continue until there are clear positive triggers for a rally. Weak earnings growth, high valuations and uncertainty around a US“India trade agreement are seen as key reasons for the current subdued market performance.
5. IPO activity
The primary market will remain active this week. Four companies plan to raise around Rs 2,066 crore through initial public offerings. A logistics company will launch its mainboard IPO, while three smaller firms will enter the SME segment.
There will also be seven listings during the week, including two closely watched mainboard debuts. One of these issues has already seen very strong subscription and is expected to list at a premium.
6. Technical factors
Market direction this week will depend on developments around global trade tariffs, geopolitical risks, quarterly earnings and key economic data. From a technical point of view, the index is at an important level.
Support is seen in the 25,500“25,450 range, which may help limit further downside. On the upside, strong resistance remains near 25,875“25,900, close to the 50-day exponential moving average. Unless this level is crossed decisively, the index may continue to move sideways with a cautious bias.
7. Rupee movement
The rupee recorded its sharpest one-day fall in nearly two months on Friday due to strong dollar demand from importers and the expiry of certain forward market positions. It closed at 90.8650 against the dollar, nearing its record low. For the week, the currency declined by about 0.7 per cent.
Dollar selling by state-run banks, likely on behalf of the central bank, helped limit losses. Analysts expect pressure on the rupee to continue, especially without progress on an India“US trade deal. Asian currencies remained largely stable, while the dollar stayed firm after strong US economic data reduced expectations of interest rate cuts.
8. Gold and silver trends
Gold and silver have continued their strong upward trend in early 2026 after an exceptional performance last year. The renewed US“Iran tensions and the weaker rupee have increased demand for these safe-haven assets.
So far this month, gold prices have risen by over 5 per cent, while silver has surged sharply during the first half of January. Any further escalation in global tensions could push prices higher.
9. Corporate actions
Several stocks will be in focus this week due to dividend-related corporate actions. A recently listed asset management company will fix its record date for an interim dividend on Wednesday. Other public and private sector companies will also announce record dates for interim dividends during the week.
