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The BJP has totally eclipsed the MGP, but the lion continues to wag its tail and now wants to grow bigger. This poses an existential threat to the BJP
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The swiftness with which Chief Minister Laxmikant Parsekar sacked Sudin and Deepak Dhavalikar may have shocked political watchers in the State. But then, when one targets the chief minister, one has to bear the consequences. The first to fire a salvo at Parsekar was Deepak, which was tolerated because the BJP knows that in the MGP, Sudin calls the shots. So when he openly stated that the MGP would not consider an alliance as long as Parsekar is chief minister, the BJP was left with two options, change the chief minister or defend him. The choice was obvious and the party not only defended him, but sent a very strong message to the Dhavalikar brothers that the senior partner can and will throw the junior out if relations are not cordial. Had the BJP to dilly-dally, the party and the chief minister would have come across as weak and desperate for an alliance with the MGP.
The BJP and the MGP are like two mace-armed wrestlers circling each other. There is a lot of shouting and screaming, but no real effort to finish the match. Actually, this is just the beginning, the first round, so to speak. Nobody is going to be severely hurt, not now. It’s about one wrestler measuring up the other. It’s about each one hoping the other will back down so that both can shake hands and retire to the nearest dabha for a glass of lassi. But one wild swing of the mace by the chief minister appears to have connected and the MGP is reeling.
Does the sacking signal the end of the alliance? Maybe. Then again, maybe not. Elections are yet to be announced and there is still time for the two to disarm and sit down for that glass of lassi and a bhai-bhai chat. The question is how far is the BJP likely to go to accommodate its belligerent junior partner? Can it accomplish this without compromising its own political future? For the BJP the MGP is like a last bastion that has resisted capture. The BJP has totally eclipsed the MGP, but the lion continues to wag its tail and now wants to grow bigger. This poses an existential threat to the BJP.
The BJP must remember that this isn’t 2012. Then there was a decisive wave against the Congress. Now, the government faces an anti-incumbency factor, which is quite large, but not yet a threat, thanks to a divided opposition. The Goa Suraksha Manch, which is yet to be tested in electoral politics is a complication that the BJP could do without. The MGP, on the other hand, sees an opportunity in the GSM.
Should the BJP and the MGP go their separate ways, Goa could head for a hung assembly with post-poll alliances that could result in a weak government. Goa could be staring down the barrel of instability and we all know how disastrous that could be for the State.
