The recent wins by Opposition parties across India in the bypolls have led to alarm bells going off in the ruling party’s camp. About two years ago, 2019 Lok Sabha polls seemed like a walkover for the Modi-Shah combine, however, coming together of various parties against NDA has completely changed the scenario.
Although questions being raised on how these parties, which often stand at the other end of the pole from each other, can come together and build a grand coalition that will challenge the BJP’s might, it is interesting to note that if they do, NDA has a very tough fight on its hands.
Very often, we tend to ignore the vote share that various parties enjoy. Studying the vote share gives us an idea of how 2019 polls may play out. Just looking at UP, the BJP banked on a divided opposition, Modi factor (development) and polarisation. The Kairana bypoll result suggest that polarisation strategy did not work while the opposition united. All they had left was to speak of development, which is a tricky subject given that all is not well.
Hence, if the opposition parties do unit, then they have a good chance of denting BJP’s tally in crucial states like Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Karnataka, Rajasthan, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh. If the poll arithmetic of NDA goes wrong in these states, they will definitely run short of a majority. While, the NDA isn’t likely to make much inroads into Odisha, West Bengal, Tamil Nadu and Kerala.
However, back to the original question of whether the parties can come together to face NDA. It seems like a tough task. N Chandrababu Naidu’s TDP has suggested it may not accept Rahul Gandhi as a Prime Ministerial candidate while leaders like Mamata Banerjee and Mayawati have made it clear that they won’t cede much ground in their respective turfs. This is bound to make negotiations tough but not impossible.
Understanding the past records for a majority and coalition governments coming to power in India, it is important to know that they fair pretty much the same except for a crucial factor. Coalition governments are vulnerable to longevity. Chances of them collapsing are high. As far as talent (cabinet ministers) and stability (economic and defence) coalition governments aren’t as weak as the assumption about them.
India needs to come to terms with the fact that there is high chance that a coalition government may take power at the Centre after 2019 polls.
As far as the vote share is considered, BJP-led NDA had managed to cross the majority mark in 2014 Lok Sabha polls with only 38.5 per cent of votes while the Congress-led UPA managed to score 23 per cent of the votes. The rest of the electorates voted for parties outside of the two major alliances.
Considering this we see that the proposed grand coalition (including UPA and other regional parties) have a greater chances of coming to power than the NDA. These new developments leads one to think what strategy will the BJP come up for 2019 polls, and whether they’ll be pushed further towards the right.
