How’s the josh on budget 2019? The question reverberated in Parliament on Friday after Finance Minister Piyush Goyal started on a pompous note: “Yeh jo desh badal raha hai, desh ki josh se badal raha hai”. The Union government has presented a budget which is high on rhetoric with signs of desperation written all over it. The million dollar question however is: can this budget give ammunition to the BJP to come out all guns blazing against a marauding opposition in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections?
The overall sentiment remains positive but gaping holes remain even as Goyal tries a ‘poll vault’. However, there are miles to go and promises to keep. With a budget focusing on the farmer, the middle class and the army, there are crucial areas that are completely ignored. While the budget focused on expenditure giving an additional spending power to the lesser privileged, it has completely skipped key areas like employment generation and sectors like education. The only barometer to test the success of Modi’s dole to the farmers is the forthcoming Lok Sabha polls. From a point of suicide, can this bring a turnaround for the farmers? Will they bite Modi’s ballot bait?
The direct payout of Rs 6000 per annum to farmers owning 2 acres of land is one of the focal points of the budget. Modi government has learnt its lessons from the recent assembly poll reversals, including Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. The finance minister has made a desperate attempt to strike at the heart of a huge vote bank which could be a game changer in elections. But what is the government trying to achieve by putting Rs 500 in the accounts of the farmer?
If numbers are drilled down to the granular level, Rs 6000 per year which works out to Rs 500 per month, appears insignificant if put against States with higher per capita income. Breaking down the equation even further, the farmer will be left with Rs 16 per day. And for a family of four this is pittance with Rs 4 per person.
From the government’s perspective, its budget schemes have the potential of targeting around 25 plus crore people. It’s a last-ditch effort to reach out to the masses. And it gives the Modi government a lot of talking points and control over the narrative. However, the math of the budget remains fuzzy. The farmer has the attention of the government, but the big picture of India is missed out and there is no sense of transformation. Against the backdrop of a dismal agricultural growth where farmers continue to remain stressed over finances, these sops cannot bring about a turnaround in economic fortunes.
Making promises is one issue while fulfilling them is another. Bringing back black money stashed overseas and promising Rs 15 lakh to Indian citizens was also another promise. Growing unemployment, which is now at an all-time high and a rising fiscal deficit still remain big worries and have gone unaddressed. The leaked National Sample Survey Office (NSSO) report said it all. It showed that India’s unemployment rate touched a 45-year high during 2017-18, primarily due to demonetisation. The budget fails to promise a transformation to a new India.
