If exit polls are to be believed, the National Democratic Alliance is set for an encore. Pollsters have predicted a landslide victory for Brand Modi in the Lok Sabha elections. The eight surveys have all shown similar trends and the broad direction is that the BJP is in pole position and could cross the half-way mark on its own. Is this for real or is this just a pre-result smokescreen termed as entertainment by a section of political parties?
All said and done, the projections and numbers are stunning and hard to digest. A case in point is Pragya Thakur who is expected to defeat Congress veteran Digvijaya Singh in his traditional stronghold of Bhopal. A surprise prediction against the murky background of a series of controversial statements made by Pragya that forced the BJP to mute her campaign and PM saying he can’t forgive her for the Nathuram Godse
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Like it or not, parties are always known to take exit polls with a pinch of salt, especially the losing side. Poll surveys may not be spot on, and they need not be. But even if there is a drift in the projected numbers, the Opposition would still be short by miles because of the huge gap. What went wrong for an over-confident Opposition? Was all the Modi-bashing only election rhetoric? Or was the mighty duo of Modi-Amit Shah too strong to handle? Did the failure of alliances help the NDA to capitalize? These will be the questions that will need answers when the results are announced on May 23.
The Brand Modi is shown to have a big influence in States where the BJP was least expected to make a mark. Leaving aside Uttar Pradesh where the pollsters have given a split verdict, all surveys are unanimous in giving states like Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat to the BJP, despite the fact that the party suffered serious reversals in the recent assembly elections. That regional parties cannot be wished away at the Lok Sabha election, proved to be myth. The big gains projected in Mamata’s bastion of Bengal and 72-year-old Naveen Patnaik’s stronghold of Odisha could stand out in BJP’s spectacular show.
While the BJP has gone euphoric over the surveys, the Opposition parties, including Mamata Banerjee have ridiculed them terming it as gossip. Pointing at the few occasions where pollsters have gone wrong is not going to help the cause. And Mamata’s call to Opposition parties to remain united and fight this battle together, at this stage, is not going to change the narrative either. It would make better sense to go into introspection right away and assess the options at hand while preparing a rough roadmap post May 23. The fact that the scheduled meeting of the Opposition is cancelled is testimony of the fact that the survey tremors have been felt.
May be taking a leaf from Modi’s recent temple run, the Opposition can hope for some divine intervention in the form of pollsters going horribly wrong.
