The tensions in the Middle East have been rising for a while now. It began with US’ withdrawal from a 2015 nuclear deal with Iran. The deal was a great diplomatic breakthrough for the US in the region. Tehran had been challenging Washington’s dominance in the region since its Islamic Revolution in 1979. The deal was meant to end Iran’s isolation as well as sanctions that were imposed after it began enriching nuclear fuel.
The trouble in Middle East began after Donald Trump took office as the US President in 2017. He withdrew from the deal claiming that it is an unfair deal. He offered to negotiate a better deal. After his announcement, the tensions in the region began to increase immensely. Today, the US has curtailed the rights of countries from buying Iranian oil through its sanctions.
The unfortunate reality is that US’ closest allies (except for Israel) objected to its decision to withdraw from the nuclear deal. After doing this, Washington went on to recognise Jerusalem as Israel’s capital. Later Trump announced that US recognises Golan heights as part of Israel. Golan heights is assumed as Syrian territory under Israeli occupation, after it was annexed by Israel in 1967 during the Six-Day War. These moves have angered Iran as it strongly opposes the Jewish State in the region.
Recently there have been a spate of attacks on oil tankers in the vicinity of the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait is a critical route for a the world’s oil supply. Everyday a fifth of the world’s oil passes through it (over 17 million barrels per day). Keeping these circumstance in mind, an incident in the Strait will be a disaster for the world.
Not only will it lead to a rise in fuel prices, it will also lead to crisis in economies who depend on the fuel from the region. This will not affect the US much, as it does not depend on the Middle Eastern fuel anymore. Since Washington improved the fracking technology, it has been able to extract its domestic oil and gas reserves, decreasing its reliance on foreign supplies.
Another advantage is that by being tough on Iran, Trump is appeasing his constituents by projecting a tough image. The problem lies in the belief that US will be able to defeat Iran in a conventional war. From looking at facts it may seem true but there are other scenarios to be considered. The first being Iran may resort to asymmetrical warfare which will repeat what US faced in Iraq (but so intense that it will make Afghanistan and Iraq look like a cake walk).
The US is unnecessarily flaring tensions in a region that has the potential to threaten the world. E.g. The Islamic State (born out of an insurgency against the US) still possess a potent threat to the world. The Easter day attacks in Sri Lanka is just an example. Washington needs to repair the ties in the Middle East that it very much participated in disrupting.
