The electoral narrative in the State has changed yet again with MGP deciding to throw its weight behind Congress candidates for the Lok Sabha polls. The retaliation from MGP throws up interesting questions: Will this move actually see a wholesale transfer
of MGP votes to the Congress? If MGP was serious about causing damage to the BJP’s Lok Sabha run, why did Sudin Dhavalikar opt out when he could have been more effective in splitting votes?
MGP’s decision to support Congress can seriously mar the prospects of BJP candidates only if there is a sizeable transition of votes. MGP strongholds like Madkaim, Priol and others could swing the advantage towards Congress, but the question remains on how seriously voters will take the MGP leadership’s call and vote for an ideologically-contrasting party. On the flip side, the Dhavalikars will be banking on the huge sympathy wave after the recent split and subsequent ejection of Sudin from the government. But again, can this sympathy see an effective transfer of votes on the ground and change the BJP math? At this point in time, Sudin’s decision to opt out of the fray
appears baffling.
Apart from MGP, support from some other alliance partners hasn’t been encouraging to the BJP. Goa Forward has been out of ground action. The last we heard was when party supremo Vijai Sardesai showed solidarity accompanying BJP nominee Narendra Sawaikar to file nomination papers. Vijai appears to be caught between the devil and the deep blue sea. Understandably, he will be digging his own political grave if he actively campaigns for either BJP or Congress in his Fatorda constituency. With Damu Naik and Girish Chodankar lurking in the background waiting to seize the political advantage, it makes sense for Vijai to take up detox programmes or even international holidays.
Another ally that has distanced himself is Sanguem MLA Prasad Gaonkar. Apparently, Gaonkar has been out of favour in the past and has been a fence-sitter ever since he quit as chairman of the forest development corporation. The very fact that Gaonkar is waiting for a green signal from his supporters with the election less than two weeks away shows his reluctance to go with the BJP. Add to this a huge wave of resentment in the mining-dependent areas.
The political equation in the State tells a funny tale. BJP, MGP, GF and Congress are four major players besides the Independents. MGP still supports the coalition government despite being wrecked, but chooses its own way to settle scores. It is set to cross swords in Shiroda and plans an indirect war in other constituencies and Lok Sabha seats. GF extends support but is nowhere at the scene.
BJP candidate Narendra Sawaikar may have impressed with his short speech on the sidelines of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Goa visit, but he will have to quickly rethink his strategy in view of the MGP move to support Congress.
