the goan I network
MARGAO
Will the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) upset Congress’s apple cart in Salcete, is a subject matter of a debate of sorts in political circles with just 12 days to go for the April 23 Lok Sabha poll, with observers saying the Congress fate may be directly related to the votes polled in by AAP in the minority heartland.
A glance at the 2014 Lok Sabha statistics would reveal that the AAP had ended up in polling 11,246 total votes, of which around 5,962 votes -- around fifty per cent of the votes -- were polled in the eight Assembly segments of Salcete.
This was five years ago when AAP had just made its electoral debut in Goa. And the results of the 2017 Assembly polls would show disturbing trends which Congress poll managers will have to take note of if they hope to keep AAP at bay.
While a glance at the poll statistics would reveal that while AAP failed to open an account in any of the eight Assembly seats in Salcete, party candidates put up a fairly good show in some of these constituencies, virtually heralding the entry of the party in the minority dominated taluka. While AAP came second in Benaulim displacing the then sitting MLA Caitu Silva and the Congress to second and third position, the party made inroads in at least three other constituencies, including Velim, Nuvem and Cuncolim, where AAP State coordinator and party candidate for the South Goa seat had polled 3,000-plus votes.
Add the total votes polled by AAP in the eight Assembly constituencies of Salcete in the 2017 Assembly poll and the party managed to cross the 20,000-vote figure, around 21,720 votes to be precise. It’s this figure polled by AAP in the 2017 Assembly poll that should send shivers in the spine of the Congress poll managers as any such repetition by AAP in the ensuing poll may result in the split in the votes in Salcete, giving an advantage to the BJP in the scheme of things.
Whether AAP will repeat its Assembly poll performance is a moot question, but observers say that the party just sustained its campaign in Salcete and surrounding areas over the last two years despite a rout in the Assembly election has endeared the party to the common man.
That the Congress leaders have now stopped labelling AAP South Goa candidate Elvis Gomes as a spoiler and a candidate in the fray to split the secular vote stems from the fact that the party leadership has now realised the trouble AAP may cause for the party in its anxiety to regain the seat from the BJP.
Says political commentator Adv Cleofato Coutinho: “Congress victory will certainly depend on the number of votes polled by the Aam Aadmi Party. I feel that the Congress candidate Francisco Sardinha may land in the danger zone if AAP crosses the 25,000-vote mark.”
Coutinho, however, said the only silver lining for the Congress is that the MGP, which had in the past made common cause with the BJP, has extended its support to the Congress in the ensuing Lok Sabha polls.
Congress poll manager in private also admit that the party will certainly devise an appropriate strategy to stop AAP’s free run in Salcete which threatens to make or mar the party’s bid to regain the South Goa seat, which it lost to the BJP in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls.
