The high-stakes Karnataka Assembly election failed to live up to the pre-poll hype and recorded a 70 per cent voting percentage. Going by the blitzkrieg of the BJP after drawing in leaders from across States in an unprecedented move, not forgetting the political appeal of tall leaders like Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah, the BJP appears to be falling short with a lower-than-expected turnout.
The Karnataka campaign of the BJP showed how crucial this election was for the party. The fact that top leaders from Goa were roped in despite the differences with the State over Mhadei water sharing, they camped in the neighbouring State, spoke to crowds in Kannada, sent KTC buses for campaigns, and even declared a holiday for Karnataka workers employed in the State. The high-pitched speeches from central leaders and the string of promises of bringing in development all set the tone. All this goes to show that BJP was giving the election its best shot.
However, much against the tide, exit polls have given a clear win for the Congress with a range of 122 to 140 seats, and the BJP is predicted to bag between 62-80 and JDS a distant third with 20-25 seats. If the exit poll predictions hold, it would mean that Karnataka has once again stuck to its trend of voting against the ruling party. Historically, Karnataka has not given a second consecutive term to any party since 1985 when the BJP returned to power in a mid-term election. The only time when Congress managed to hold onto power was in 2004 and 2018 but that was by striking a coalition with the JDS.
The BJP, on the other side, had a bleak past of never having won a clear majority in Karnataka elections. In view of this, the focus this time was the Modi factor and the party was largely banking on his massive appeal hoping to offset the odds the BJP in Karnataka was facing. Much was expected because the opposition was on a high playing the caste politics to good effect and launching a blistering “40 per cent sarkar” campaign that constantly pushed saffron leaders on the back foot over corruption charges.
While BJP’s plan to capture the gateway to the South may be crumbling, the Karnataka result could give the Congress a shot in the arm that the party badly needed and it could have some ammo to go into elections in States to follow like Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Telangana. Should Congress get a clear majority, it will cross a major hurdle of seeking the support of local outfit JDS with whom it has seen friction over the years. A major dilemma for the grand old party would be to pick between Siddaramaiah and state unit president DK Shivakumar.
The BJP will have to accept the fact that State politics is a different ball game and national heroics may not necessarily work. Now, the question is whether the outcomes of these States can have an impact on the Lok Sabha polls and whether Karnataka will resurrect the Congress from the pit of failure.
