The stage is set for what appears to be a keenly-contested Zilla Panchayat elections between the BJP and the rest. Despite being powerless, the elections to the two ZPs have become the cynosure of all eyes and assume significance for political reasons. By the sheer fact that these polls are contested on party lines, it becomes a semi-final of sorts before the assembly elections which is less than 15 months away. Now, the crucial questions are: Can the BJP pull through despite the odds, or will the Opposition parties make their presence felt? Secondly, will this election be used as a referendum on the contentious issues grappling the State?
Firstly, the election is not only a litmus test for the BJP but also a crucial trial of strength for the Opposition parties. The Congress and other parties like AAP, Goa Forward and MGP face a monumental challenge of making inroads into these local bodies. A triumph over BJP will not only give them new confidence but put them on a sound footing ahead of the assembly polls. The Opposition appears to be going into the election with a massive advantage picking on government failures, but the question is whether parties can capitalize on this bandwidth. In other areas outside the domain of protests, it would be politics as usual, and parties would rely on individual brilliance for results.
The BJP has exuded confidence fielding 25 candidates in North Goa and 16 in South Goa. A significant advantage for the party candidates is that it has the backing of the ruling party and government machinery. But on the flip side, there is a backlash that candidates could face in specific pockets in the wake of the government's insistence on crucial projects like coal expansion, double-tracking and the new power transmission line.
Also, for the BJP, this would be a critical time to test the strength of the breakaway factions of Congress and MGP which joined forces with the saffron party. This election will help the BJP in gauging the reach of these MLAs before finalizing its lineup for the all-important test in 2022.
Finally, what remains to be seen is whether parties use the election result as a referendum on contentious projects that people are fighting opposing. Will a vote for BJP mean a mandate for projects, and vice-versa? Are successes and failures going to be attributed to acceptance or rejection, or will this be a contest in isolation of the issues at hand?
A precedent has already been set outside Goa. The recent Rajasthan civic polls are a classic example where the BJP came out triumphant and claimed that the win was a mandate to the farm laws of the Narendra Modi-government. BJP President J P Nadda said the success symbolizes the trust which farmers and labourers have in Modi's leadership.
Back to Goa, the ball is now in the court of the voter.
