PANAJI
With counting of votes slated to be taken up from 8 am tomorrow (Tuesday) it's not just the candidates in the fray for the two Lok Sabha seats -- North Goa and South Goa -- who will have stakes high. The results could have a huge bearing on the political fortunes of several other leaders as well.
When results begin to come in on Tuesday by noon, it will be known whether the BJP's Shripad Naik sets the record of a sixth consecutive win or the old warhorse, Ramakant Khalap, of the Congress has managed to stop him in his tracks. The fate of Revolutionary Goans Party president Manoj Parab will also be known.
Beyond the fate of the Naik-Khalap-Parab trio, meanwhile, the June 4 results and its many dimensions will unarguably have an effect on other leaders like Chief Minister Pramod Sawant, Health Minister Vishwajit Rane, all of the eight MLAs who switched from the Congress camp to the BJP in September 2022, Aldona MLA Carlos Alvares-Ferreira who headed the Congress campaign in the north and other politicians.
For the political parties too, the June 4 results will have an impact apart from umpteen lessons to be learnt from the numbers thrown up at the assembly constituency level.
2-0 for BJP will be
booster for CM
For Sawant, nothing will be sweeter than the BJP winning both the seats on June 4. Winning both the seats, as a couple of exit polls have forecast, will buttress his position at the helm of the State government and demolish any maneuvering within the ruling camp to unsettle him.
A one-one tie between the BJP and Congress -- North for the former and South for the latter -- as predicted by the India Today-MyAxis exit poll, may not upset Sawant's applecart but the scenario could have some bearing on the saffron party's confidence in his leadership.
The third scenario -- losing both the seats -- will be a serious setback for the chief minister which if followed with an unfavourable verdict nationally, could even threaten the stability of his government as history has shown in Goa.
Rane content as
Sattari King?
All political analysts and punters are unanimous on one scenario -- that in Poriem represented by his wife and his own Valpoi segment, Rane will certainly come up trumps with huge margins for the BJP's Naik.
The question looming in every political analyst's mind is whether the 'number two' is content with being 'king of Sattari' or will crave to spread his political leadership wings over a wider State-level canvass.
Although, Rane has hardly made any explicit bid to unsettle Sawant at the helm, the bitter tussle between the duo post the 2022 assembly results which delayed the new government formation by a month, was a give away. Time and the numbers thrown up on June 4 will either give impetus to the tussle at the top or let status-quo sustain.
Acid-test for
turncoats
For the legislators who switched camps from the Congress to the ruling BJP in September 2022, the numbers thrown up at their own assembly segment level will dictate to a significant extent whether their political path is secure or needs a course correction.
Four of the eight MLAs -- Michael Lobo (Calangute), Delilah Lobo (Siolim), Kedar Naik (Saligao), Rajesh Faldesai (Cumbharjua) and Rudolf Fernandes (St Cruz) -- are from the North and have the odds stacked against them in ensuring leads for Naik from their respective constituencies.
Not in a very happy political situation in the ruling camp, these four MLAs will have to show some robust numbers on June 4, if only to use it as a bargaining chip in the melee of Goa's political power play.
For the record, Congress candidates have got leads in Calangute and St Cruz at successive parliamentary hustings since 2004
Political parties
For political parties on the other hand, the June 4 numbers will dictate what course they will take for the future.
The results will be of most significance and impact for the fledgling regional party -- RGP. Its president Manoj Parab is in the fray and his tally of votes will have to be closely watched as it could be crucial for this fledgling party's survival and progress in the near future.
As for the beleaguered Congress, brought down to a House strength of three by defections, the numbers polled by Khalap in some of its traditional pockets of support especially in Bardez and Tiswadi, will be of key interest to political analysts as it will indicate whether the new, younger leadership has managed to arrest the grand old party's electoral decline.
