MOOD OF THE STATE SURVEY II
The survey was conducted between 10 and 17 of this month and about 100 voters were interviewed in each of the 40 constituencies. Care was taken to ensure that the sample was spread across all booths in the constituency.
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IF POLLS WERE HELD TODAY THE WINNER WOULD BE
Political party October August
BJP 18-20 17-18
Congress 9-11 12-13
AAP 2-4 4-5
MGP 2-4 3-4
Goa Forward 1-2
Others 1-2 1-3
………………………………………………………………………………….
PUBLIC PERCEPTION: WHICH PARTY WILL FORM GOVT
Political Party October August
Only BJP 48.6 % 33.8%
Only Congress 22.8% 21.97%
Cong-led alliance 2.7% 9.48%
BJP+MGP 14.7% 13.79%
AAP 8.8% 10.35%
…………………………………………………………………………………………..
- BJP poised to win 18-20 seats,
BJP-MGP combine to get 24
- AAP on the wane; split in
non-BJP vote dents Cong
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THE GOAN NETWORK
PANAJI
The survey conducted by The Goan Everyday, Goan Varta and Prudent Media in collaboration with Dnyanprassarak Mandal’s college shows the BJP ahead of its rivals and poised to win 18-20 seats if polls were held today.
The survey, conducted between 10 and 17 October placed the Congress in second place with 9 to 11 seats and in position to form government on its own or have the gravitas to draw other parties or independents.
For both political parties, there has been a marked change since August when a similar survey was conducted. Then the BJP was is a wee bit of trouble and poised to win 17-18 seats, enough to form the government with the MGP, but still in a vulnerable position.
Its position seems to have improved at the cost of the Congress which seemed to be in the game in August with a tally of 12-13 seats.
One of the reasons for a rising BJP graph is the inability of the Congress to project itself as a winner and fragmentation of the non-BJP vote.
While the August survey gave the Congress a vote share of 21.97 per cent, in October the picture had not changed much with the party poised to win 22.8 per cent of the vote.
On the other hand, the vote share of the BJP shot up from 33.8 per cent in August to 48.6 per cent in October, giving it a clear lead and pushing it in a position to form government with a fair level of comfort.
In 2012, the BJP had garnered 34.68 per cent of the votes to win 21 seats while the Congress got 30.78 per cent which translated into nine seats.
Between August and October, the situation has changed a little for the MGP. August projections showed the party winning 4-5 seats. This changed to 2-4 seats in October, which means the BJP is gaining while the MGP is unable to raise its tally.
Nonetheless, if the BJP and the MGP go to the polls in an alliance they could win close to 24 seats and easily form the government.
The Aam Aadmi Party, which was the first to launch its grassroots level meetings and has shown promise, is beginning to wane. According to the survey conducted in August, the party was slated to win 4-5 seats. This figure dropped to 2-4 seats even though the party has announced candidates to 15 constituencies.
The general perception among voters is that although AAP is well-meaning and serious about its campaign, it has not succeeded in projecting itself as an alternative to the BJP. Unfortunately, for the Congress the presence of AAP is expected to split the opposition vote to the advantage of the ruling party.
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