Will Goa Forward chief manage to hit a six yet again in 2027 in Fatorda without an alliance with the Congress?
MARGAO
How will Fatorda’s political landscape evolve in the 2027 Assembly election in the event of a break-up of the alliance between the Congress and the Goa Forward Party?
That question has been doing the rounds in political circles ever since Goa Forward suspended alliance talks with the Congress, as the Goa Forward Party and its chief face a more fundamental electoral question: Can Sardesai retain Fatorda in a multi-cornered contest if the BJP, Congress and other non-BJP parties enter the fray separately?
The question assumes significance in a constituency where the BJP has maintained a strong electoral presence and where Sardesai’s victories, although consistent since 2012, have never come with a commanding margin.
Goa Forward can point to Sardesai’s electoral record to argue that he has successfully held Fatorda despite the presence of Congress candidates. Sardesai defeated the BJP in 2012 and in 2017 despite the presence of Congress candidates in the fray and retained the seat in 2022, even as other non-BJP parties contested independently.
Fatorda’s electoral history also offers a counter-argument. Sardesai’s first attempt to enter the Goa Legislative Assembly, in the 2007 election on the Congress banner, ended in defeat when BJP’s Damu Naik retained the constituency due to the emergence of Scheduled Tribes leader Piedade Noronha. As it turned out, Noronha polled 3,640 votes — a tally that proved large enough to split the anti-BJP vote. Naik eventually retained the seat by a margin of 1,771 votes.
If the Congress-Goa Forward alliance survives, Sardesai could enter the election with the advantage of a broader opposition arrangement. But if the alliance collapses, the constituency could witness a battle in which Sardesai’s party and personal vote, the Congress’s organisational strength, the BJP’s established presence and the vote share of smaller parties are all tested independently.
Sardesai’s victory margins in last three polls
Although Sardesai has established himself as the dominant non-BJP political force in Fatorda over the past three elections, his victory margins have remained relatively narrow.
His first victory in 2012 saw him defeat Damu Naik by 1,939 votes, ending the BJP legislator’s run in the constituency. But Sardesai’s margin declined in the next election, with his lead over Naik falling to 1,334 votes in 2017.
In 2022, Sardesai managed to increase his winning margin marginally, retaining Fatorda by 1,527 votes.
The numbers suggest that while Sardesai has been able to maintain his hold over Fatorda, his support base has not translated into a runaway lead. His margins have remained below the 2,000-vote mark in all three victories.
The non-BJP vote remains the key
One of the most interesting features of Fatorda’s electoral arithmetic is the cumulative performance of smaller non-BJP parties. In each of Sardesai’s three victories — 2012, 2017 and 2022 — parties other than the principal BJP, Congress and Goa Forward contestants have collectively accounted for a sizeable chunk of votes. In the 2022 election, for instance, the Aam Aadmi Party, Revolutionary Goans Party and Trinamool Congress together polled around 2,500 votes. That figure is significant when viewed against Sardesai’s winning margin.
Congress faces a difficult choice
Sources say even if the Congress decides to contest the 2027 election from Fatorda in the event of a break up in the Congress-GFP alliance, the party may be faced with an uphill task to rebuild the organisation in less than six month-time to wean back its core voters, who had in the recent past voted for the Goa Forward or parties such as AAP, RGP and TMC.
No doubt, Congress leaders may refer to the 2019 and 2024 Lok Sabha election where the Congress led over the BJP in Fatorda, to drive home the point that though the party may not have been active due to the alliance politics, the party’s voter base has still not fragmented yet.
Sources, however, say the Congress will have an arduous task to rebuild its organisation and reclaim voters who have moved towards Sardesai and other parties over successive elections.
Three defeats, but Damu Naik’s Fatorda vote tally keeps rising
Will BJP State President Damu Naik play yet another political innings from Fatorda in the upcoming election?
MARGAO: Former two-time BJP MLA and incumbent BJP State President Damu Naik has suffered three consecutive defeats at the hands of Goa Forward chief Vijai Sardesai in the Fatorda Assembly constituency—in 2012, 2017 and 2022.
Yet, the voting figures tell an interesting story: with every election, Naik has increased his vote tally, indicating that while the BJP may be down in Fatorda, it is far from being out of the political reckoning.
In the 2022 Assembly election, Sardesai completed a hat-trick of victories in Fatorda by defeating his long-time political rival Naik for the third consecutive time. However, the victory was far from comfortable.
Sardesai polled 11,063 votes, while Naik secured 9,536 votes, leaving the Goa Forward chief with a relatively slender winning margin of 1,527 votes.
The contest was even closer in 2017, when Sardesai retained the seat he had first won in 2012 with a margin of just 1,334 votes.
