the goan I network
MARGAO
Can Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar’s surgical strike in Navelim stop the return of State Congress president, Luizinho Faleiro and help his blue-eyed boy Avertano Furtado and Salcete’s lone Minister in the BJP-led government?
Or, will the former two-time Chief Minister and six-time Navelim MLA brush aside a spirited challenge from his rivals to return back to Navelim after a gap of 10 long years?
Both the Luizinho and Avertano camps exuded confidence of winning the seat, even though other players in the fray, including Cipru Cardozo, MGP’s Satyavijai Naik and Jorge Barretto were not behind in claiming victories.
Two crucial questions that have come to the fore and are a subject of debate in Navelim political circles two days after the February 4 poll are simple “ has Luizinho managed to maintain his hold over the strong 5000-odd strong Muslim vote, which he had eyed to pocket a major slice, but had to face a major challenge from close rivals -- Avertano, Jorge and Cipru? And, whether Avertano and his BJP colleagues succeeded in persuading the BJP voter base to vote for Avertano on the plea that a vote for MGP’s Satyavijai is a vote for Luizinho Faleiro? Answers to these questions will determine the fate of both the state Congress president and Salcete’s lone minister as any change in equations and predictions can mar their electoral prospects.
First, the Muslim vote, predominantly concentrated in the Rumdamol Housing Board. Polling in the Rumdamol Housing Board has been pegged around 4559 votes as against total 5643 electorate. That the state Congress president had been solidly banking on the Muslim vote to take a major slice, if not the entire cake, was evident by the concentration of his campaign in the housing board area. The BJP-Avertano combine realized Luizinho’s game plan early and drafted leading fish merchant and fish exporter, Maulana Ibrahim to woo the crucial Muslim vote.
Political observers say that Luizinho’s fate will be decided by the number of votes he polls in the Housing board locality, with a vertical split of votes, likely to impact his prospects in the final tally.
Similarly, Avertano’s victory in the 2012 election against Churchill Alemao was facilitated by BJP’s strategic voting in his favour. With BJP’s rebel leader Satyavijai Naik in the fray on the MGP banner, one question doing the rounds in Navelim circles is how much votes can Avertano poll from the crucial Hindu vote to give him a big push, more so when the Muslim vote is set for a division this time round.
Sources in the BJP said sensing a divide in the BJP vote this time round, Defense Minister, Manohar Parrikar had sent an SOS to local party leaders three days before polls to rally behind Avertano and prevent a split in the party vote. It’s still, however, unclear whether Parrikar’s diktat had found favour with the cadre on the ground and political observers said that Satyavijai’s vote may have a bearing on the fate of the sitting Independent MLA.
One thing is clear that both Luizinho and Avertano are banking on sizeable vote from the Muslim and Hindu communities respectively in their battle of the ballot, aware that the Catholic vote, which once decided the fate of candidates in Navelim, may face a vertical split with too many players vying for the vote.
Besides, almost all major political players are keeping their fingers crossed over the polling by the 700-odd military men in the Navelim election, which may hold the key to the success of the candidates in case of close contest.
