the goan I network
PANAJI
With the schedule for the upcoming Lok Sabha general elections likely to be unveiled by the Election Commission of India in a week’s time, politicians in Goa are resigned to facing the electorate, in both North and South Goa seats, with the ghost of the unresolved mining impasse poised to run amok with their electoral math.
And, with their governments in Goa and the Centre yet to come up with the promised formula to resolve the crisis, the Bharatiya Janata Party is most likely to face the brunt of the potent backlash.
Goa’s iron ore mining landscape equitably spreads across both the North Goa (Panaji) and South Goa (Mormugao) Lok Sabha constituencies. Five assembly segments in each of the two Lok Sabha seats are core mining areas and account for over a quarter of the electorate.
In North Goa, the Assembly segments of Valpoi, Sanquelim, Bicholim, Mayem and Tivim are heavily dominated with mining dependent population. Workers who are out of work due to the ban, truck and earthmoving machinery owners and several other small business owners whose fortunes depend on the mining economy add up to a sizable proportion of the electorate estimated to be in the region of 1.4 lakh.
In South Goa, the mining dependent populace similarly dominates the Ponda, Quepem, Curchorem, Sanvordem and Sanguem assembly segments.
In this scenario, the BJP, already with their backs to the wall as their tallest leader and Chief Minister Manohar Parrikar is physically inhibited due to his valiant battle with pancreatic cancer, will be hard pressed to defend both the seats and get the sitting MPs -- AYUSH Minister Shripad Naik (North) and Adv Narendra Sawaikar (South) -- re-elected.
Speaker, Dr Pramod Sawant, however begs to differ and denies that the odds are stacked against his party. “In both the constituencies we have our election strategy and campaigning blue-print ready. As such, both the BJP candidates will emerge victorious when the elections are held,” he told The Goan.
For obvious strategic reasons, however, Dr Sawant declined to articulate any further how they plan to overcome the odds. But with Parrikar out of physical action, sources said the saffron party will heavily depend on his lieutenant and organisational warhorse Satish Dhond who recently returned from Maharashtra and was drafted as State Organising Secretary.
Naik has won the North Goa seat in four successive elections -- 1999, 2004, 2009 and 2014 -- with comfortable margins, except for the contest in 2009 when he scraped past NCP’s Jitendra Deshprabhu and the post with a wafer thin margin of 6,353 votes.
This time though, Naik who is almost certain to be renominated, is likely to face his toughest contest with his party’s bastions in the mining regions uncertain which way they will vote.
Much, however, will also depend on the candidate the Opposition Congress puts up. Jitendra Deshprabhu, is the only leader who has staked claim for the ticket and former Union Minister is another heavyweight leader said to be also eyeing the nomination.
In South Goa too, Sawaikar who had won the seat comfortably in 2014 defeating current Curtorim MLA Aleixo Reginald Lourenco, is expected to face an uphill task on account of the BJP’s mining affected bastions in turmoil.
From the Congress side, Francisco Sardinha, who has represented the constituency twice is making a concerted bid for a political comeback and has formally staked claim for the ticket. Reports that Navelim MLA, Luizinho Faleiro, is also being considered as a probable candidate have also surfaced. Power Minister Nilesh Cabral, who is a political satrap of the mining heartland constituency of Curchorem, however, believes his party will overcome the odds.
“Serious and consistent efforts are on to resolve the complex mining problem. Both the seats will be won by our party,” Cabral said. Congress’ State president, Girish Chodankar, however insists there is a strong anti-BJP sentiment prevalent across the State and his party will be its natural beneficiary.
“The ruling BJP has created a multitude of controversies and issues, People will not favour them, Chodankar said
while expressing confidence that the Congress candidates will emerge victorious in both the seats.
The two principal political parties apart, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) too has announced it will contest both the seats and has named its State Convenor Elvis Gomes for the South and its General Secretary Pradeep Padgaonkar for the South who although may be visible, are yet to make a mark electorally.
State, Centre yet to come up with promised formula to resolve mining crisis
BJP most likely to face brunt of mining dependents
BJP candidates may also feel the heat with Parrikar not being in a position to campaign
Saffron party will now heavily depend on organisational warhorse Satish Dhond
THE FLIP SIDE... BJP UPBEAT
Dr Pramod Sawant says in both constituencies our election strategy and campaigning blue-print is ready... both BJP candidates will emerge victorious when elections are held
Power Minister Nilesh Cabral also claims serious & consistent efforts are on to resolve the mining problem... both the seats will be won by our party
