PANAJI
Exit polls have finally told the voters of Goa what they already knew about Goa’s electoral fortunes… that just about anything is possible on March 10 and immediately thereafter.
With most surveys indicating no clear winner in these polls, Goa’s immediate political future may well be dependent on both the dominant players, the BJP and the Congress, wooing lesser players in the fray like the Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party (MGP), Trinamool Congress (TMC), Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and independent candidates in their respective bids for power.
With due deference to the extremely mercurial nature of Goa politics, especially when it comes to cobbling together numbers post counting, here is a list of likely scenarios which could present themselves on March 10 and a compilation of possible roles which other political groupings might play vis a vis government formation.
BJP-led alliance
Six exit poll surveys have predicted the emergence of the BJP as the single largest party on March 10. Only, the India TV-CNX poll findings appear to have come nearest to the BJP’s pre-poll slogan of ‘22-plus in 2022’, with the other five slotting it as the single largest party.
The BJP went into these polls all alone, after being rebuffed by the Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party rejecting desperate last-minute serenading by state and central BJP leaders. But considering that the MGP has fitted well as the ‘joker’ in the political deck of cards in Goa, it would be no surprise to see the Dhavalikar brothers come up with a justification to join a BJP-led coalition post-counting.
The brothers appear to have developed a special, organic glue in one of their kulagars which helps them attach themselves to the bosom of any political party at least for a few years. Sudin Dhavalikar has already hinted at his displeasure of Chief Minister Pramod Sawant’s leadership, while not outright denying any truck with the BJP.
It’s the kind of delicate, ambiguous balance which the Dhavalikar brothers excel at. In 2017 too, after contesting the elections against the BJP, the Dhavalikar brothers flipped overnight insisting that he would be part of a BJP-led government only if then Defence Minister late Manohar Parrikar returned to state politics.
The obvious question which would arise in face of an MGP-BJP alliance is, would the TMC not object to it? But such a dilemma appears to be marked with naivete, especially when it comes to discussing Goa politics, where a given word holds true, only until it is reneged upon. Sawant, on Tuesday, has already admitted to being in touch with the MGP leadership.
A Congress-led coalition
The Congress snatched defeat from the jaws of victory in 2017 and reduced itself to two digits by 2022. If exit poll results are anything to go by, the Congress appears to have done well to get itself back in the reckoning. Three opinion polls have picked the Congress as the single-largest party, with the opposition outfit tying with the BJP in two other polls.
The India Today-Axis poll has been most favourable to the Congress fortunes allocating between 15-20 seats to the Congress-Goa Forward alliance. Unlike the BJP, the Congress does not have the advantage of a central government (and its enforcement agencies) to power it through in a number crunch. But it does have in its kitty the wisdom gained from past mistakes and the guile of former Union Finance Minister P Chidambaram to chaperone it through tough moments.
On paper, a Congress-led alliance, comprising non-BJP parties seems plausible, because the BJP appeared to be isolated in the run-up to the February 14 polls. On the other hand, the Congress managed to bury its hatchet with the formalin-tainted Goa Forward and the Hindu conservative MGP shared a warm embrace with the Trinamool Congress, whose critics have been accused of being pro-Muslim in its outlook.
The AAP contested the polls alone. Would the Arvind Kejriwal-led party look to provide support to a Congress-led formation? Amid all the BJP’s B-team rhetoric which the Congress has heaped on AAP, on January 9, 2021, state Congress president Girish Chodankar had made an articulate pitch for the two parties joining forces.
On Monday, too, senior Congress leader in-charge of Goa Dinesh Gundu Rao has also said that the Congress was open to forming a government with non-BJP parties’ support.
Unlike Sawant, who has slipped down from his ‘22 in 2022’ rhetoric to conceding that the party may need the help of independent candidates in case they cannot shore up numbers on their own, Congress leaders continue to express confidence of winning a majority. The party is also in talks with the MGP for patching up a post-poll alliance.
MGP-TMC
Kingmakers by design, the Dhavalikar brothers-led party could hold the key to government formation once again, if one goes by the exit poll numbers. The party is in alliance with the TMC, but that is an appendage that can be done away with in the blink of an eye, by the perennially power-hungry Dhavalikars.
The alliance has been given 5-9 seats by the ABP News and C-VOTER polls, with the poll of the polls suggesting a range of between 3-6 seats for the alliance. Unlike the MGP, whose interests are strictly provincial, the TMC has a broader pan-India baggage to shoulder as a party which can take on the might of the BJP.
The TMC may have to sever alliance ties if the MGP decides to go with the BJP, in pursuance of its all-India goals. The TMC -- if it does get legislative presence -- may prefer to opt for a Congress-led alliance if it comes to a choice between the two. All bets could be off, however, if the TMC’s legislative affairs are dominated by say the Alemaos -- Churchill and his daughter Valanka -- who prefer to walk their own political paths.
Aam Aadmi Party
AAP’s chief ministerial candidates appear to have taken the mantle of King Momo in Goa’s politics. Billed as about-to-be Chief Ministers ahead of elections by the party, Amit Palyekar, like his predecessor Elvis Gomes (in 2017), may see his fictional reign as the ‘future Chief Minister’ of Goa end on March 10.
The party has been given a maximum of five seats by two exit polls and six by another. The party, which appeared to have made pragmatic compromises in its selection of candidates in 2022, may still be uncomfortable to join forces with the Congress in Goa, especially because of its political battles in other parts of the country, where it is looking to replace the Congress as the principal opposition outfit to the BJP.
Independent candidates
Amid an air of general mystery, there appears to be a near-unanimous assumption that these elections are likely to throw up more than its share of independent MLAs, who could hold the key to any government formation. Pramod Sawant’s concession that he would prefer independent MLAs for support if the BJP falls short of numbers, is almost an endorsement of the role winning independents are expected to play post-March 10.
