Task cut out for BJP, Cong to wrest South Goa seat


MARGAO
Bharatiya Janata Party’s Mission Salcete seemed loud and clear – go all out in the minority dominated Salcete to try and reduce the vote margin of rival Congress in the taluka with eight Assembly segments at stake.

What’s Congress’ agenda in the eight Assembly segments in the hinterland talukas of South Goa constituency, including Madkai and Sanvordem – retain and improve its vote lead in Salcete and stop BJP’s free run in the hinterland segments.

Well, results of the 2014 Lok Sabha polls and the 2019 election provide an insight as well as a clear message to the two political arch rivals – either perform exceptionally well in their respective strongholds and work hard to reduce the vote margin in the enemy territory or perish.

In fact, the Lotus had bloomed in South Goa in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls when the party had a virtual free run in the hinterland Assembly segments coupled with the fact that the party had managed to reduce the Congress’ vote lead in Salcete.

The 2019 Lok Sabha polls saw exactly the opposite. Not only the Congress wrested the seat from the BJP after the party increased its vote lead in Salcete, but effectively reduced BJP’s free run in the eight hinterland segments, including Madkai and Sanvordem.

In fact, the results of the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha polls hold a lesson or two for the Congress and the BJP as the two parties have descended on the ground for the May 7 election.

A glance at the 2014 poll statistics shows that the Congress candidate Reginaldo Lourenco had lost the seat by a whopping 32,330 votes to BJP’s Narendra Sawaikar despite the fact that minority Salcete had rallied behind the Congress by giving the party an unassailable 31,527 vote lead over the BJP.

These statistics may throw up a question or two – how come the Congress failed to retain the seat when the party candidate got a whopping 31,527 vote lead in its stronghold Salcete?

Well, answer to this question is not easy to find. While the Congress managed to retain  its hold over Salcete, the party could not contain BJP’s free run in the eight hinterland segments, including Madkai and Sanvordem, with each of these segments giving the BJP 11,000-odd vote lead.

In fact, the BJP had a virtual free run in the eight hinterland segments of Madkai, Ponda, Shiroda, Sanvordem, Sanguem, Curchorem, Quepem and Canacona in 2014, securing over 40,000 vote lead, which was enough to dilute the Congress’ gains in Salcete.

The 2019 Lok Sabha polls results, however, rung in good news for Congress leaders as polling in the eight hinterland segments upsetting the BJP applecart, paving the way for the return of the Congress in the election.

Otherwise, consider this. In Salcete, the Congress stronghold, the party surged ahead with an unassailable 50,000 lead over the BJP. That’s not all. The Congress managed to successfully stop the BJP’s free in the eight hinterland segments. 

The statistics show that in the two strongholds of Madkai and Sanvordem, the Congress managed to make a big dent, leaving the BJP and its candidate Narendra Sawaikar stranded midway through the battle. In Madkai, the BJP had to content with a mere lead of 2,000 votes over the Congress, while the lead in Sanvordem drastically came down to 8,572 votes as compared to the 11,000 vote lead over the Congress in the 2014 poll.

Much water, however, has flown down the river Zuari since the last five years. The regional Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party and the Dhavalikar brothers, which gave a call to the party rank and file in 2014 to support the Congress, are now part of the BJP-led government in the State, publicly extending support to BJP candidate Pallavi Dempo in Madkai.

The Congress party has another issue at hand to retain the votes polled in the 2019 polls. Unlike the past, the party has no tall leader worth its name, in the hinterland segments that the party can rely on to make inroads into the BJP bastion. Other than Quepem MLA Altone D’Costa and GPCC chief Amit Patkar, who had lost the last Assembly polls by a whisker against BJP’s Nilesh Cabral in Curchorem, there’s no leader in its ranks who can lead the fight on behalf of the Congress, leaving the responsibility on the shoulders of Altone and Patkar to manage the show in the hinterland segments of Quepem, Canacona, Curchorem, Sanvordem and Sanguem.