Valpoi by-poll: no cakewalk for Rane as Roy up for challenge

Long considered the bastion of the Rane family, the Valpoi by-poll is now an open contest with Congress candidate, Roy Naik, working overtime and with full support of his father, former chief minister and Ponda MLA Ravi Naik and Congress workers.
Vishwajeet Rane's sudden departure from the Congress and entry into the BJP has galvanised the Congress camp, with both parties impacted by this move.
BJP workers are now left in an awkward situation and are being asked to forgive and forget Rane's taunts and allegations against them while he was in the Congress.
Whether or not they fall in line and support Rane or silently vote against him in revenge, something that the Congress hopes for, is left to be seen.
For the Congress, the refusal of veteran Congress leader and Poriem MLA Pratapsing Rane to campaign for the Congress candidate in Valpoi constituency has been a disadvantage. But Ravi Naik's wholehearted involvement in the poll has lifted the spirits of the Congress workers.
COMMUNITIES
The 28,828 voters from Valpoi constituency are located in Valpoi town and the panchayats of Khotodem, Nagargao, Sawardem, Guleli and Usgao, of which 14,326 are male and 14,503 are female.
The diverse communities and their affiliations will play a key role in determining the outcome of the by-poll.
According to estimates, the Hindus comprise the dominant community with 55% of votes from the Maratha community and Bhandari community (15%).
The Muslim community accounts for 20% of votes, followed by Christians (5%) and other communities (5%).
The Maratha and Muslim communities have traditionally played a deciding factor in the constituency. The Maratha community, which includes the Nav Maratha and Old Maratha samaj, have rarely supported any one party in the past.
This time though, the Maratha community may take a stand especially since the 96 Kuli Kshatriya Maratha Samaj organisation was formed three years ago and has built itself into a strong lobby.
The Muslim vote base, another significant force in Valpoi constituency, had earlier strongly supported the Congress and Rane, but his sudden shift to the BJP has upset a number of Muslim voters, who are likely to shift their loyalty to Roy Naik.
A similar situation is expected to take place among the Christian community, going by the strong anti-BJP sentiments in the church.
Voters in Valpoi town have traditionally supported Rane while he was in Congress, but it is left to be seen if his switch to the BJP will impact his voter base in the municipality.
Both Naik and Rane are keen to woo the sizeable Bhandari Samaj voters, many of whom are located in Usgao-Gangem panchayat, an area considered to be the stronghold of Ravi Naik.
CONSIDERATIONS
Among the considerations that are key to voters in the constituency include employment, mobile connectivity, road networks and the vexed Shivaji statue issues.
As a health minister in the Congress government, Rane claims to have provided a large number of jobs to people from the constituency. However, despite retaining the same portfolio after his entry into the BJP, Rane would not find it easy to assure and hand out jobs, given the political compulsions and alliances confronting the BJP and the coalition government.
Voters in Valpoi constituency have long complained about poor mobile connectivity and it has been one of the issues highlighted by Naik during his campaigns.
With no mobile network in many parts of Valpoi, candidates promising better mobile connectivity could well make an impact among the voters, especially the younger ones.
The vexed issue of Shivaji statue is also a key consideration for voters of Valpoi town.
The Shiv Premi group had installed the statue, but authorities have refused to give recognition to the statue.
The large number of Shiv Premi voters of Valpoi constituency have squarely blamed a politician for pressuring officials to book cases against the Shiv Premi group and they could give vent to their anger by voting for a particular candidate in the polls.