In any contest, 1-1 is considered a draw. Then why one party is in a jubilant mode and another in mourning? The exciting result in South Goa has overshadowed BJP's historic victory in North Goa. To an extent, the BJP has carried out a muted celebration in the North while the Congress party with its allies has gone to town about their victory in the South. Apart from the high-octane election in South Goa, the subtle messaging from the voters has encouraged the I.N.D.I.A. alliance.
Rejection of the BJP's inorganic growth
BJP has faced its toughest challenge from the saffron-dominated constituencies. The 'imports' since 2019 have failed miserably to prove their worth. The 'inductees' post 2022 has turned out to be disasters. Let us understand this through some examples.
BJP's lead in Mormugao constituency came down from 3438 votes in 2019 to 2065 in 2024, a decline of 1373. Sankalp Amonkar + Milind Naik should have increased the 2019 tally. Instead, it saw a downward slide.
In Shiroda, the BJP's margin came down by 1327 votes. In Dabolim, it was reduced by 1055 votes. In Vasco, by 193 and in Curchorem, by 1722 votes.
In Margao, Digambar Kamat had delivered a lead of 2036 votes towards Congress in 2019. In 2024, he could only give a lead of 1323 to the BJP. He could not even match his individual performance in the last election as a Congress MLA. In 2019, the BJP polled 9046 votes in Margao. In 2024, this number went up to 11474, a mere increase of 2428 votes.
In Ponda, despite Ravi Naik + MGP equation, BJP's lead went up by merely 1793 votes. In Nuvem, where Alex Sequeira was inducted into the cabinet a few months before the election, Congress lead went up by 1573 votes compared to 2019.
The independents supporting this government also failed pathetically to help the party in power to improve its performance in their respective constituencies. In Cortalim, the lead for the Congress went up from a meager 84 in 2019 to 2923 in 2024. In Curtorim, the heavyweight Alex Reginald ended up making a negative mark for the party that he was supporting. The lead for the Congress party rose by 842 votes in this constituency. In 2019, Congress had achieved the lead of 8346. In 2019, it went up to 9188.
What do these numbers tell us? In simple terms - adding MLAs and leaders to the fold doesn't lead to the addition of votes. Voters do not appreciate such inorganic growth achieved by either betraying their mandate or the sentiment in a particular constituency.
Salcete's Super 60+
For the first time, the BJP had 3 MLAs (two imported) in this crucial taluka and a seasoned independent MLA supporting (post-poll) them. This, the ruling party's leadership assumed would work to their advantage. Instead, it proved counter-productive.
The post-poll unnatural tie-ups and assimilations not only angered the voters, it alienated the BJP's core voter base, hurt their cadre and consolidated the anti-BJP vote. Salcete ended up giving an unassailable lead of 62,839 votes to the Congress candidate. In Navelim, for example, where BJP has a seating MLA, the lead for the Congress party increased by 1171 votes compared to 2019 - from 4599 in 2019 to 5770 in 2024. The least BJP would have expected from its MLA was to arrest the lead of the opposition to the last election level. In Fatorda, the BJP polled fewer votes than in 2019. In the last election, it had polled 10058 votes. In this election, the BJP ended up getting 9881 votes. A drop of 177 votes and a substantial increase of 1799 in the lead of the opposition candidate. The massive consolidation in the rest of the constituencies demolished any hopes of the BJP of surmounting the lead.
The RGP factor
Finally, I think, RGP decisively proved that they are not the B team of anybody. The party polled a minimum of votes in Salcete but made a sizeable dent in the BJP-dominated constituencies. In Madkai, RGP polled 2839 votes, 1142 in Ponda, 2809 in Shiroda, 1029 in Quepem, 2069 in Sanvordem, 931 in Sanguem, 936 in Canacona.
In short, that's the story of South Goa. Voters delivered a stern message - inorganic growth, flip-flops, unnatural tie-ups and unholy alliances will be dealt with, with an iron fist.
Post-script: The BJP's first reaction after the results was pointing at a 'holy alliance' between I.N.D.I.A. and a powerful religious body. The fact is - the BJP was aware of this bonhomie before the elections. It also attempted to upend the equation arising out of that arrangement. How that failed can be seen from the statistics detailed above.
