As President Barack Obama enters his second term, the stateof the world is unsettled. The leading powers are beset with economic crises orare in various states of political transition or gridlock. The Middle East isundergoing political upheaval. Tensions are rising in Asia. The world’sinstitutions “ whether the United Nations, the Group of 20 or the EuropeanUnion “ are weakened and dysfunctional. The liberal world order establishedafter World War II is fraying at the edges.
This time of uncertainty and instability is a moment ofopportunity for Obama. When the United States entered World War I, thephilosopher John Dewey observed that the world was at a ''plastic juncture.''Many progressives believed the unsettled world of their day offered the UnitedStates a chance to remold the international system into something better. Americanswalked away from that challenge and would embrace it only after a secondcatastrophic breakdown of world order. Today, we are at another plasticjuncture and the president has a unique opportunity to strengthen and extendthe liberal world order from which Americans and so many others around theworld have benefited.
There is not a lot to show for Obama’s first four years. Infairness, the economic crisis that he inherited made steady concentration onforeign policy more challenging. His predecessor badly bungled the two warsObama inherited in the Greater Middle East, at great cost in lives and treasureand to America’s reputation. Obama began to restore that reputation, raisingAmerica’s profile and deepening its engagement in East Asia.
But most of the major challenges are much as Obama foundthem when he took office - or worse: from the stalled Middle East peace processand turmoil in the Arab world to Iran’s continuing march toward a nuclearweapons capability to China’s increasing assertiveness. The president’s recentpreoccupation with re-election has left much of the world wondering, where isthe United States?
For all the talk of American decline, Obama is actuallywell-positioned to assert global leadership. If he can strike the necessarycompromise with the US Congress to address America’s fiscal crisis, the UnitedStates could well emerge as one of the world’s most successful and dynamiceconomies. America enjoys unique advantages: a natural gas revolution thatpromises soon to make it a net exporter of energy, a superior universitysystem, and an open and innovative economy. The United States remains the onlyworld power with global reach, uniquely capable of organizing concertedinternational action and serving as a source of security and stability tonations facing threatening neighbors. How then to take advantage of thisplastic moment?
In the security realm, Obama’s primary ''big bet’' must beto prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapons capability. The collapse ofthe nonproliferation regime that would follow Iran’s successful acquisition ofnuclear weapons would strike a devastating blow to the international securityorder. Conversely, if Obama can succeed in achieving meaningful curbs on Iran’snuclear weapons aspirations, he will do much to strengthen nonproliferation asfundamental pillar of the new liberal global order.
In East Asia, the president’s primary big bet should be onpromoting a regional order that encourages China’s new leadership to take apeaceful and productive direction, away from greater reliance on military powerin favor of continued economic and political development at home and increasingintegration abroad. This will also require deepening America’s Asian alliancesand playing a major role in supporting regional cooperation. With India, theworld’s largest democracy and the other major rising power in Asia, the nextfour years will be critical in building a partnership that can serve as anotherpillar of a new liberal order.
Strengthening the liberal political order will requireincreased efforts to enlist the support of emerging democracies. Nations likeBrazil, Indonesia, South Africa, Turkey and Mexico have become increasinglyinfluential economically. But they are struggling to find their identity asdemocratic powers on the international stage. Across the globe, the UnitedStates has strategic, political and economic interests in the spread of stable,liberal democracies. Although democracies in transition can be fractious andunstable, in the end they are more reliable supporters of the liberal worldorder that Americans seek.
The United States needs a global strategy. It cannot focuson one critical region to the detriment of others. While Obama was right toincrease American attention to the vital Asia-Pacific region, there is no safealternative to continuing to play the key security role in the Middle East andEurope. In the Middle East, many nations look to the United States forprotection and assistance. But Europe too deserves continued Americanattention. Everything the United States wants to accomplish in the world can bebetter accomplished with the help and cooperation of our European allies.
At the end of World War II, the United States led the way inshaping an international order that, for all its flaws, served the Americanpeople, and much of the world, remarkably well. With sustained attention,personal engagement, and a clear vision of a multilateral global order thatreflects American liberal values and progressive ideals, President Obama nowhas the opportunity once again to shape world affairs to the benefit of theUnited States and mankind.
Martin Indyk is director of foreign policy at the BrookingsInstitution and co-author of ''Bending History: Barack Obama's ForeignPolicy.'' Robert Kagan is a senior fellow at Brookings and the author of ''TheWorld America Made.'' They are co-authors, with their Brookings colleagues, of''Big Bets and Black Swans: A Presidential Briefing Book.''
