In recent days there have been two symbolic events that runthe danger of igniting hostilities in an already tense neighborhood of theCaucasus. On August 31 a former Azerbaijan Army lieutenant, Ramil Safarov, flewback to Baku after serving eight years in a Budapest jail for killing GurgenMargarian in 2004. The victim, an Armenian officer, had been a fellowparticipant in a NATO Partnership for Peace exercise. Safarov hacked him todeath in his sleep with an ax.
The Hungarian government transferred the prisoner toAzerbaijan on the understanding that he would serve out the rest of his lifesentence in his home country. But immediately upon his arrival in Baku,Lieutenant Safarov was pardoned by President Ilham Aliyev, restored to militaryduties, promoted to major, given an apartment and awarded back pay for his timein prison. These actions drew universal condemnation from Washington, Moscowand European governments.
Apart from the fact that such a step is an affront to basicnotions of justice and the rule of law, even more troubling is the message thatit sends to the rest of the world: that the Azerbaijani government thinks it isacceptable to kill Armenians. Apparently, the grievances they suffered in theirdefeat by Armenian forces in 1992-94 are so profound that even murder isexcusable. It is hard, then, to ask the Armenians living in Karabakh to quietlyaccept the idea that the solution to their disputed territory is for them toreturn to living under Azerbaijani rule.
This one single act could undo the patient efforts ofdiplomats and activists over many years to try to rebuild connections and worktoward mutual trust “ without which any kind of peace settlement will be a pipedream.
Compounding the problem was a less significant but stillnoteworthy gesture. On Sept. 3, Richard Morningstar, the new US ambassador toAzerbaijan, paid his respects to Heidar Aliyev, the deceased former president(and father of the incumbent), by laying a wreath at his statue in centralBaku. Apparently it is standard protocol for US ambassadors to include thisstop in their round of duties when arriving in Baku. Photographs also clearlyshowed the ambassador bowing his head before the monument, though a State Departmentspokesman later denied this. Morningstar’s far from empty gesture sent twowrong signals.
First, it is disheartening to democratic activists to seethe United States so cravenly supporting dictatorship as a suitable form ofrule, a pattern all too familiar from US policy toward the entire Middle East.
Second, it signals to Armenia “ and its principal ally,Russia “ that the United States is an unqualified backer of the Azerbaijanigovernment, warts and all. Strategic interests “ Caspian oil, access to CentralAsia, containment of Iran “ count for more than the niceties of human rightsand democratic procedure. This makes it all but impossible for Armenia toexpect the United States to act as an honest broker in the peace process. Andif the United States cannot play that role, no one else will.
Diplomacy has long revolved around such symbolic acts. In1793, the Earl Macartney, British ambassador to China, was thrown out of thecountry when he refused to kowtow before the emperor. More recently, visits byJapanese government ministers to the Yasukuni Shrine in Tokyo, commemoratingthe souls of warriors, have triggered protests from China and South Korea.
By contrast, when Chancellor Willy Brandt fell to his kneesbefore the monument to the Warsaw Ghetto in 1970 he turned a page in Germanatonement for its past atrocities. In the same spirit, Vladimir Putin sent aclear message of reconciliation when in 2010 he knelt at the monument to thePolish officers killed at Katyn on Stalin’s orders. What we need in theCaucasus are leaders willing to follow the examples of Brandt and Putin, withthe courage to show contrition and a willingness to meet with their formeradversary and figure out a way to live together. We may be in for a long wait.
Peter Rutland is a professor of government atWesleyan University in Middletown, Connecticut
