The news that the European Union is again debating whetherto put Hezbollah, Lebanon’s dominant political and military force, on itsterrorist list is deeply worrying. The move, which reflects growinginternational pressure on Hezbollah following a recent intensification of USsanctions “ risks disturbing the fragile country’s uneasy peace.
For 18 months Lebanon has largely succeeded in shieldingitself from Syria’s unfolding civil war. True, Lebanon has been racked by boutsof violence and deepening political polarisation between pro- and anti-Assadsupporters, but this has not triggered a broader eruption. The restraintexercised by all political forces “ but particularly Hezbollah “ has beencentral to this resilience.
To the surprise of many, Hezbollah, which is backed by Syriaand Iran and maintains its own non-state militia, has not gone on the offensiveto safeguard its position as regional fault lines shift, nor has it contestedthe unprecedented arrest of close political allies by its political opponents,the pro-Western, Sunni-dominated March 14 bloc. Instead it has played a stabilisingrole, supporting calls for political consensus and urging calm while keepingits fighters off the streets, even as others have taken up arms.
Hezbollah’s actions reflect self-interest as much asnational benevolence; its political allies control the government and it wantsto maintain its institutional strength. Still, the group’s behavior has beencritical to keeping the calm.
Equally, despite its close alliance with President BasharAssad of Syria, Hezbollah appears to have exercised moderation in offering armedsupport for his regime’s brutal crackdown. While the longstanding relationshipbetween the two makes some assistance almost inevitable, there are noindications that Hezbollah has moved significant arms or personnel Assad’s way.
Europe’s willingness to date to resist US and Israelipressure to place Hezbollah on its terrorism list and under a sanctions regimehas been critical to maintaining the group’s moderation and Lebanon’s uneasycalm. European engagement has provided Hezbollah’s leadership with reassurancethat there will be political room for their group in the post-Assad era. Thishas been key to preventing a pre-emptive offensive by Hezbollah to secure itsposition, particularly given mounting international pressure against Iran andSyria, its two regional backers.
But European sanctions could change Hezbollah’s strategiccalculus in one fell swoop. Coming on the back of the new U.S. sanctions,Hezbollah would immediately feel considerably more threatened, raising thepossibility of more violence. This would be devastating for Lebanon andthreaten the outbreak of wider conflict that could drag the country into civilwar. It would also likely play directly to Assad’s advantage by givingHezbollah no further reason to chart a middle course. Hezbollah would tie itsown survival to that of Assad.
There is no doubt that Hezbollah needs to be held to accountfor its long history of terrorist activities and unwillingness to submit to theauthority of the Lebanese state. European leaders may understandably want totake a stand should Hezbollah be proven complicit in the July killing of sixpeople, including five Israeli tourists, in Bulgaria, but so far these chargesare unsubstantiated.
However, it is imperative that European leaders consider thebroader ramifications of changing tack on Hezbollah. If they want to protectLebanon’s fragile peace and prevent Syria’s conflict from spiraling out ofregional control, they must show restraint. Of course Europe should continue toraise the issue of Hezbollah maintaining its own militia and support for Assad.But a turn to confrontation may prove counterproductive.
Syria’s historic ability to assert control over Lebanon isweakening. In this context Hezbollah, shorn of regional allies, may be forcedto show greater restraint and deference to other political forces.
Over time it will also become much less tenable forHezbollah’s leaders to justify maintaining the group’s militia. A move todisbanding this armed force would offer Lebanon an opportunity to strengthen itsinstitutions and build an effective democracy. By seeking to corner Hezbollahnow, Europe risks provoking a violent backlash that will threaten suchpossibilities.
Julien Barnes-Dacey is a senior policy fellow atthe European Council on Foreign Relations in London
