Hurricane Sandy put climate change back in the politicaldiscussion. Sandy gave the American people a painful taste of what is likely tobe in store for us as the planet’s weather continues to change rapidly. Thestorm inflicted significant damage on regional infrastructure, crippledtransit, and left millions without power. Only the extraordinary accuracy ofour weather prediction and foresight in preparations by state and localgovernments prevented a catastrophic loss of life as well.
And yet, while our political leaders treat threats liketerrorism, Russia, or cyberwar as existential threats to America’s nationalsecurity, they lump climate change into an issue that only special-interest“environmental” campaigners care about. While no one doubts the existence of alQaeda, many otherwise serious politicians have questioned the underlying factsabout climate change. This has to change, and it starts with the facts. First,climate change is real and it is already underway. The temperature record isundisputable. Over the past century, the average mean global temperature hasrisen about 0.8ËšC. The warmest decade on record was the 2000s, with each of thethree decades previous to that warmer than the decade before. While it is truethat the earth’s climate has always undergone periods of fluctuations, thisperiod is notable because it is especially rapid and unprecedented in the prehistoricrecord.
Next, climate change is largely caused by a global surge ingreenhouse gas emissions that were introduced at beginning of the IndustrialRevolution. While the climate and weather systems are very complex, the sciencebehind the “Greenhouse effect” is relatively simple. The earth is habitablebecause gases like carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane trap heat, like a blanketaround the earth. However, humans have added more greenhouse gases to theatmosphere by burning fossil fuels. This causes the atmosphere to trap more andmore heat.
These basic facts should not be in dispute. An estimated 97percent of climate scientists agree with these basic facts. There aredisagreements “ as in every field of science “ that are largely focused on thesensitivity of the climate to precise additional emissions and the impact thatthose emissions have on weather patterns. Many scientists contend that theearth is likely to suffer greater harm than the scientific consensus says. Itis simply not credible for a politician or a commentator to question thosefacts by cherry picking evidence or claiming that there is no scientificconsensus.
The effects of climate change have never been more apparent.Sea levels are rising by about 3 mm per year. Arctic sea ice fell almost 50percent below the 1979-2000 average. In 2012, more than 15,000 heat-relatedrecords in the United States were broken. This summer the US experienced theworst drought since the 1930s. Unprecedented fires occurred across the westernUnited States. And, last week, the East Coast was hit by a storm unprecedentedin size. Climate change is happening and is getting harder to ignore.
While projections of how much the climate will change areclearly uncertain, we do know that the longer we wait, the worse it gets.Reducing greenhouse gases while implementing adaptation measures is basic riskmanagement. Military planners and business executives routinely operate underuncertainty and make decisions based on incomplete information. If abattlefield commander waited until all facts were known about an advancingenemy, he would put his troops at risk. When 97 percent of the experts tell usthat operating on a business-as-usual trajectory will exponentially increaserisk, why is it that we dismiss them?
Facts will eventually force action. Although thepresidential campaign was largely devoid of a discussion on climate change, thePresident Obama, during his second term, and the Congress will be forced totake serious steps to address this real and accelerating problem. As theAmerican Security Project’s new Climate Security Report makes clear, climatechange threatens national security. It acts as an accelerant of instabilityaround the world and it poses clear dangers to America’s homeland security.
Climate change will impose costs. There are costs ofinaction. We can either pay now by investing in clean energy technologies andsensible measures to adapt to the consequences of a warming climate, or we willpay later in disaster response. These investments will not be cheap.Investments in flood gates and surge barriers to protect vital harbors willcost billions, as they did 50 years ago in The Netherlands. Clean energysolutions in the United States are necessary, but must be paired with actionaround the world. Climate change is a global problem that will require globalsolutions. By unleashing American ingenuity and entrepreneurship to developsolutions, we can avoid the worst consequences of climate change and protectour vital national security interests in the process.
Lieutenant General Dan Christman, USA (ret.) was a member ofNATO’s Military Committee in Brussels and was superintendent of the US MilitaryAcademy at West Point. Brigadier General Steve Anderson, USA (ret.) was DeputyChief of Staff, Logistics for the Multi-National Force in Iraq under GeneralDavid Petraeus. Brigadier General Stephen Cheney, USMC (ret.) was theCommanding General at Parris Island and the Inspector General of the MarineCorps
