The political calendars of the United States and Chinafollow different cycles, but once every two decades China’s leadershiptransition occurs simultaneously with the U.S. presidential election. So now,with President Barack Obama’s re-election and Xi Jinping’s anointing as chiefof the Chinese Communist Party, both countries have an opportunity to takestock of the bilateral relationship.
These two leaders may not want to say it out loud, but theywould privately admit that U.S.-China relations are in trouble. While the valueof the Chinese currency and trade disputes dominate headlines, the real causeof deteriorating ties is more profound and potentially dangerous. Mutualstrategic distrust has escalated in the last two years and is creating avicious cycle that, if not stopped quickly, could lead to a fierce rivalryharmful to both countries.
Washington and Beijing blame each other for the growingtensions. The Obama administration believes that China’s assertiveness onterritorial disputes and its military modernization must be met withcountermeasures. Chinese leaders have grown increasingly antagonistic to U.S.diplomatic support for Vietnam, the Philippines and Japan in their territorialdisputes with China. Most important, Beijing resents the so-called Asia pivot,Washington’s plan to beef up U.S. naval assets in the Western Pacific.
Thus the top foreign-policy priority for both leaders is toreset the tenor of Sino-American relations. Of course, given the near-collapsein Sino-Japanese relations, Xi will have to devote considerable energy todefusing tensions with Tokyo. But he must be aware of two interlockingrealities: that U.S.-China relations are far more critical to China’s long-terminterests, and that repairing ties with Tokyo will be only the first, butvital, step in that direction.
There is little doubt that top Chinese leaders are acutelyaware of the intrinsic importance of a stable relationship with the UnitedStates; such awareness has prevented crises in the past three decades from totallydestroying relations. It is also highly likely that China’s new leaders willcontinue to pursue a pragmatic foreign policy and try to avoid confrontationswith the United States.
However, maintaining a fragile status quo is becomingincreasingly difficult. Several trends “ changes in relative power in China’sfavor, the one-sided focus on the military aspect of America’s Asia pivot,escalating territorial disputes that could drag in the United States andChina’s military modernization “ are exacerbating mutual distrust. Xi and hiscolleagues need to initiate a policy reset to signal to the second Obamaadministration that Beijing seeks to put ties on a more solid footing.
A reset could start with concrete measures to resolveterritorial disputes with China’s neighbors, particularly Japan, Vietnam andthe Philippines. Should Xi succeed, he would be able to demonstrate that Chinawill abide by international law in resolving such issues. Success would removethe most dangerous underlying dynamic in the Sino-American strategiccompetition in East Asia.
A reset also needs to stabilize the deteriorating securityrelationship with the United States. This will be difficult because of thestrategic distrust caused by the fundamental differences in the political systemsof the two countries. Yet, China can still take substantive measures to reversethe adversarial dynamics. Making Sino-American military-to-military exchangesmore meaningful and substantive is one. Agreeing on rules to avoid navalaccidents is another. Initiating a bilateral dialogue on cybersecurity isabsolutely critical in avoiding potentially calamitous incidents.
Granted, Beijing will continue to encounter skepticism fromWashington. But if Xi takes the initiative, with concrete proposals, he shouldfind the Obama administration receptive.
To shift American perceptions of his leadership, the thirdcomponent of Xi’s reset is domestic reform, especially political reform. Theconservative backsliding in China over the past decade is the deeper cause ofthe worsening U.S.-China relationship. Xi can reverse this dynamic, beginningwith a more symbolic step, such as releasing Liu Xiaobo, the jailed Nobel PeacePrize laureate, under medical parole.
To be sure, this policy reset would not quickly alter the natureof Sino-American relations, but it would go a long way toward establishing Xi’scredentials as a decisive and forward-looking leader intent upon nurturing amore durable bilateral relationship with Washington.
Minxin Pei is a professor of government at Claremont McKennaCollege and a nonresident senior fellow at the German Marshall Fund of theUnited States
