We have come to expect the unexpected. Whether it's BlackTuesday (the Wall Street crash of Oct 29, 1929), news of an impending deal toend a long, unpopular war (Henry Kissinger, “peace is at hand” in Vietnam, Oct26, 1972), or just the unlikely revival of a team with a well-deservedreputation for choking (Boston Red Sox, October 2004), the term “OctoberSurprise” has entered the dictionary, and rightfully so.
This year, the question hanging over the contest betweenRepublican challenger Mitt Romney and President Barack Obama is particularlypoignant: Will Israel strike at Iran’s nuclear program before the election?That scenario, Republican advisers fear, could result in an election eve surgeof support for the sitting president by 5 to 7 points ” the traditionalreaction when US forces gird for possible action.
Republicans today are white hot about what some see as yetanother example of the October surprise phenomenon: last week’s LaborDepartment revision to unemployment figures that tugged them conveniently down(for President Obama, at least) from 8.1 to 7.8 percent. But the results of anIsraeli decision to strike Iran between now and Nov 6 would not only deal apotentially fatal blow to Mitt Romney’s presidential ambitions; it could alsotip the entire world into something economists universally fear: a coordinatedglobal recession prompted by a huge spike in global oil prices.
Robert McNally, who was senior international energy advisorin the White House's National Security Council during the last administration,says a dangerous gap has developed between what he calls “planet officialdom”and “planet market” on the likelihood of an Israeli strike in the very nearfuture.
In effect, McNally says, past experience ” the Gulf War andmore recent Iraq War ” has convinced oil traders and other market players whoseactivities move prices that the US military would quickly restore the flow ofoil through the Strait of Hormuz should Iran take steps to interrupt thatnarrow channel, through which 17 million barrels of oil move per day, or 17percent of all “sea-traded” oil.
But a decade of war games by US Navy planners have showedthat is not a given. According to a source at the US Naval War College inNewport, Rhode Island, who asked to remain anonymous due to the sensitivenature of the information, several recent simulations showed it could take upto a month to re-open the Strait, and that Iran could inflict significantdamage to US naval vessels attempting to do so.
Could Romney’s campaign, on far better terms with BenjaminNetanyahu than Obama’s White House, be trying to engineer something similar? It’squite possible. But the fact is that Netanyahu can add the numbers, too, andfaces his own dilemma. Yes, a strike before the election could help ensure asecond term for a president he clearly finds hard to deal with. Yet there willnever be a moment when Barack Obama is as likely to stand unquestioninglybehind an Israeli action as on the eve of a tight re-election battle.
With all this swirling, and with a third US carrier taskforce in the Gulf along with a French carrier, uncertainty prevails. With eventhe most perfectly designed and executed Israeli attack likely to set backIran’s nuclear program only a few years, many are hoping that Iran’s currenteconomic collapse will convince Israel and its hawkish American supporters tobe patient.
Otherwise, a regional crisis involving uranium could veryquickly become a global one involving oil.
