No one knows for sure. Scientists think the virus that causes COVID-19 may be with us for decades or longer, but that doesn’t mean it will keep posing the same threat.
The virus emerged in late 2019 and it’s difficult to predict how it will behave over the long term. But many experts believe it’s likely the disease will eventually ease from a crisis to a nuisance like the common cold.
That would happen as people build up immunity over time, either through infection or vaccination. Other viruses have followed a similar path.
The 1918 flu pandemic could also offer clues about the course of COVID-19 .
The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates that a third of the world’s population became infected with that virus, which originated in birds. Eventually, after infected people either died or developed immunity, the virus stopped spreading quickly. It later mutated into a less virulent form, which experts say continues to circulate seasonally.
However, the emergence of new COVID-19 variants could complicate the picture if future virus mutations cause more severe disease or evade vaccines.
It's unlikely the virus will ever be completely stamped out, given the possibility that people might be able to get reinfected after they’ve already been sick or vaccinated.
The only virus that’s ever been eradicated from the human population is smallpox. That’s because people develop lasting immunity to that virus after getting sick or vaccinated.
Why experiencing some side-effects after Covid vaccination could be good
As Covid-19 vaccines are rolled out across the world, a growing band of recipients are complaining of being flattened by side effects, especially after a second dose. Recipients describe symptoms from fever to fatigue that is more profound than the jolt some get from a seasonal flu shot.
Although the post-vaccination malaise is generally innocuous and fades after a day or two, some hospitals and medical centres are staggering immunizations of health workers to avoid a brief cluster of absenteeism.
Typical symptoms include a sore arm, usually localized to the area the inoculation was given, and systemic symptoms, such as a mild fever or elevated temperature, headache and muscle aches. Some studies have found that younger adults report localized and systemic reactions more frequently than people over 65 years old. A type of skin eruption, known as a morbilliform rash, was described in a 30-year-old male health-care worker two days after his second jab. The rash, which covered most of his back, resolved on its own after a day.
Reactions may be unpleasant, but they are usually short-lived and far less serious than what’s inflicted by a natural infection. Vaccines are extensively tested for safety before they are released. Once they are in large-scale use, they are rigorously monitored in “post-marketing" surveillance systems for unexpected or rare reactions that are too uncommon to have been picked up in clinical trials. While adverse reactions to a vaccine aren’t uncommon, these products wouldn’t be licensed if they were likely to be severe or long-lasting.
