Jihadists have yet to shut down a power grid, paralyse a transport network or banking system or take over a key industrial site from afar, but experts say the threat of such a cyber attack should be taken seriously. Analysts fear that while extremist groups may not have the necessary skills themselves, they could hire someone else to wreak havoc. "Digital attacks with major impacts are unlikely in the short term," said Guillaume Poupard, head of France's digital security service ANSSI, speaking at an international cyber security conference in Lille, France.
The Islamic State group, Al-Qaeda and other jihadist groups are so far using the internet mainly for propaganda and recruitment purposes. "The skills are complex, though not at the level of a nuclear weapon," Poupard said. "With a few dozen people, a little money, but not that much, you can be effective."
Earlier this month, Europol director Rob Wainwright also warned of the use of digital mercenaries by jihadist groups at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. "Even if they don't have access to the capabilities, they can simply buy it on the darknet (a hidden internet realm of encrypted websites), where there is an enormous trade in cyber criminal technology," Wainwright said at a panel discussion on "Terrorism in the Digital Age".
Data pirates and cyber criminals from several countries, often linked to organised crime, offer their services on the darknet. Given the anonymity of the sites, some may help jihadists without realising it. "In fact, that's our fear," Poupard said. "It's no so much that IS can quickly develop cyberattacks but that they will be able to go through intermediaries."
Most developed countries are steadily boosting their defences against the cyber threat, be it terrorism, crime or espionage. "Terrorist groups that currently use the internet for planning, propaganda and recruitment purposes could become full players in the cyber arena," French Defence Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian said last month as he unveiled his country's policy on military cyber security.
Disturbing precursors of more insidious actions ahead are internet interlopers that do not steal or destroy data but appear to map websites, preparing offensive weapons for later use. "This kind of attack has even begun in some countries," Poupard said. "We are closely following what's happening in Ukraine where strange breakdowns are becoming frequent that are caused by extremely sophisticated actions."
