Driving on streets of Mumbai a day after BalasahebThackeray’s mammoth funeral makes you realise how contrasting 24 hours can beto this city.
On Sunday, November 18, 2 million people came out on thestreets to bid adieu to the ‘Tiger’ without a single incident of violence andtoday we are back to our regular traffic jams.
Sunday’s human sea on the streets of Mumbai indicated a lot.For political pundits, it’s clear sign who rules Mumbai even in 2012. The strongMarathi vote was out there, making all those who questioned their relevance incosmopolitan Mumbai nervous. Cadres of two warring political parties of nephewsmingled with calm and allowed the ordinary Marathi manoos to pay their lastrespects.
Amid the Shiv Sainik’s calm, or being “dumbed down” as somecynics would prefer to call it, everyone is asking one question: What next? Whowill be Mumbai ka boss next? What’s the future?
Well, for firsts, Balasaheb’s deteriorating health must havemade son Uddhav and nephew Raj think about the future question clearly. Let’ssee the scenario in November 2012. Shiv Sena has just triumphed in Mumbai andThane civic elections and looks increasingly confident of facing 2014.
Raj Thackeray’s MNS has softened its aggressive stanceagainst Sena and even got into alliance in local bodies.
Like at the Centre, the Congress-NCP government is facingheat in the Maharashtra as well: scams (Adarsh, irrigation), law and order(Azad Maidan) and the continuous fighting between the Congress and NCP leaders.
Chief Minister, Prithviraj Chavan continues to be challengedby his own party men, who often fly to New Delhi to complain about thelacklustre leadership at the state.
The Ajit Pawar crisis is Chavan’s biggest headache. The NCPis riddled with scams and infighting, with leaders leaking stories (read scams)against each other in the media.
Many emotional Sainiks and some leaders have for long beenproclaiming the need for Raj and Uddhav to come together to ensure the Marathivote doesn’t split and benefit the Congress-NCP. Their voices may get louder inthe coming weeks. But can it actually happen?
The political reality for the cousins in 2012 is verydifferent than the one when they bitterly split six years ago. Feelingincreasingly sidelined, Raj formed MNS in March 2006 and since then hasestablished its base across the state with large following from Marathi youth.MNS has 13 MLAs in the state assembly and made good inroads in the state’sthree biggest cities in the recent civic polls. In Mumbai, the party 28 hascorporators out of BMC’s 227 seats, 29 of 152 in Pune, and 40 of 122 in Nasik.
Many traditional Sena voters are also moving to MNS, andeven from the party’s bastions like Dadar in Mumbai.
Uddhav, on the other hand, won Brihanmumbai MunicipalCorporation in a tie-up with RPI and BJP. Having slowly emerged from theshadows of his father, he now leads from the front. He is looked upon as amoderate face of Sena with a keen interest in environment and photography.
Even as the state government woos Sena by organising themeticulously planned state honour for Balasaheb, any closeness with the‘Congresswallahs’ at this stage would be seen as ultimate betrayal by theaverage Sainik. Raj, who is also seen as less critical of NCP and close toPawar, will be equally careful of his next steps.
Pictures of the two cousins and their wives united in griefat Shivaji Park are telling. But as time flows, both would realise that theyneed to align, yet maintain their identity. Both have large, emotionalfollowers with distinct ideologies. Walking on the same road, and yetmaintaining their individuality, would be the wisest thing for them at thisstage.
A single political outfit will create a power struggle.Instead, respecting a two-party alliance with a common minimum programme wouldensure safety of the Marathi vote and their expand base.
No doubt this is a watershed moment in Maharashtra politics.Will family ties triumph over political reality? Or will this calm lead to amore realistic political alignment? The countdown to 2014 has just begun.
