“I nsanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.” This timeless quote by Albert Einstein aptly frames the current posturing of Pakistan’s military establishment. In his address at the Pakistan Naval Academy, ‘Failed Marshal’ Asim Munir reignited the call for “Kashmir’s freedom,” revealing the enduring centrality of India in Pakistan’s military psyche. While ceremonial in context, the content was far from benign, showing how the Pakistan Army sustains its relevance and narrative through the manufactured spectre of an Indian threat.
Pakistan’s New Playbook
Since India struck beyond the Line of Control during Operation Sindoor, a shift in India’s doctrine has emerged, promising a disproportionate response to any terror attack attributed to Pakistan ” ‘Goli ka Jawab Gole se’. Unlike the 2016 surgical strikes and 2019 Balakot airstrikes, India’s post-Pahalgam response directly targeted terrorist infrastructure inside mainland Pakistan, marking an escalation that has forced Pakistan to reassess its playbook. It may now initiate covert provocations through non-Pakistani platforms to deflect accountability ” aiming to strike India at a place and time of discomfort to cause panic and test India’s retaliatory doctrine. If the attack does not directly originate from Pakistani soil, will India strike back, risking escalation, or will ambiguity dilute its response? Pakistan seeks to probe India’s red lines without crossing its own, keeping conflict alive without tipping into full war.
Volatile Neighbourhood
The present subcontinent climate is ripe for exploitation, with anti-India sentiment cultivated by political opportunism, extremism, or manipulation by external actors. In Nepal, rhetoric around contested borders feeds nationalistic narratives portraying India as a hegemon. In Bangladesh, radical groups nurture resentment, accusing India of interference. These elements, with ties to Pakistan-based outfits, can be mobilised for conspiracies. In Sri Lanka and the Maldives, anti-India narratives are stoked by pro-China groups, framing India as a threat to sovereignty. Such undercurrents offer Pakistan’s intelligence and proxies space to forge linkages, exploiting shared ethnicity, porous borders, and digital propaganda to infiltrate and destabilise India while Islamabad denies involvement and paints India’s reaction as overreach.
US-China Rapprochement & Regional Calculus
Renewed American engagement with Pakistan post-Operation Sindoor signals to Rawalpindi that in the event of an existential threat, the West may again intervene to bail Pakistan out. The cooling of tariff wars between the US and China, marked by quiet diplomacy and resumed consultations, signals a shift from confrontation to cautious coexistence, affecting India as ties with Beijing remain strained. Beijing’s strong reaction to the Dalai Lama’s reincarnation, asserted by India as a religious-cultural matter, has reignited tensions over Tibet and borders. In retaliation, there has been economic pushback, including withdrawal of Chinese nationals from India-based manufacturing and an informal embargo on rare-earth magnets, vital for India’s electric vehicle ambitions.
Testing India
In this calculus, Pakistan is again a ‘strategic partner of convenience’ for the US and a proxy for China in a two-front standoff. This convergence will embolden Pakistan’s deep state to risk misadventures under indirect backing or diplomatic cover. Any Indian retaliation risks being complicated by global powers invested in regional stability but historically inclined to bail out Pakistan during escalations.
Need for 360-Degree Security
India cannot see these developments in isolation. It must build alliances while managing perceptions, maintaining strategic autonomy, and ensuring resilient security amid shifting winds. India must adopt a 360-degree threat model that includes internal vulnerabilities and regional linkages. To pre-empt, contain, and respond, India must strengthen internal security through seamless coordination among agencies, police, and defence forces, especially in border states and urban centres. Sharing intelligence in real time and conducting joint drills will improve response time. India must disrupt cross-border radicalisation and logistics chains by dismantling recruitment networks, sleeper cells, and terror financing. Diplomatically, India must expose Pakistan’s duplicity ” its peace rhetoric versus its support for terror ” ensuring provocations lead to isolation, not sympathy.
Simultaneously, India must reinforce its northern borders to deter Chinese opportunism during Indo-Pak escalations, maintain high operational readiness with emphasis on rapid mobilisation and joint-force integration, and enhance surveillance and early warning systems along all borders using deterrent technologies. Continued modernisation of missile forces, air defence, and cyber units is vital to counter multidimensional threats. A robust communication campaign must build public awareness, unity, and resilience, ensuring adversaries fail to sow panic or divide society through hybrid warfare.
Prepare, Pre-empt and Prevail
India stands at a crossroads where composure must balance calibrated aggression. We cannot be reactive or caught off guard. The threats are hybrid, the actors transnational, and the stakes nothing short of national security and democratic stability. Our response must be whole-of-nation, sending a clear message that India will not be distracted nor deterred from decisive action. We will remain secure, sovereign, and supreme come what may.
(The writer is a veteran from Goa, who served the nation with distinction for 32 years)
