Portugal's president tries to tame political crisis
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Portuguese President Anibal Cavaco Silva, who once noted that in his job silence was worth its weight in gold, faces what could be his toughest task as he tries to resolve a political crisis.
The country is now hanging on every word of the 76-year-old professor of public finance, because it is up to him to decide what happens next after the confusion created by last month's inconclusive elections.
Cavaco Silva will be confronted with an unprecedented situation next week when leftist parties are set to use their parliamentary advantage to topple the minority government of pro-austerity allies which he reappointed after the October 4 vote.
Cavaco Silva's stiff, awkward way of talking has earned him a reputation for inflexibility. But those close to him say that is just part of his determination to go by the book, a resolve that he will not easily abandon in what will likely be the last big decision of his career.
"He is very institutional, he only says things at the right time and place," said a source who has worked with the president for many years. "Often, people don't understand that."
Last month's vote saw Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho's centre-right government come first but lose its majority, as many voters gave the thumbs-down to the harsh austerity which he has imposed on the country in return for an international bail-out.
Yet Cavaco Silva chose to re-name Passos Coelho as premier, arguing that the precedent established since Portugal shrugged off dictatorship in 1974 gave him the right to try to form a government.
He shunned the claims of the left to power by arguing the mainstream Socialists could only secure a majority by turning to hard-left political allies he attacked for their Eurosceptic stances.
"Never has a Portuguese government depended on the support of anti-European political forces," he said in a stab at the Communists and Left Bloc, which have in the past advocated leaving the euro.
But that stance will be put to the test next week when Passos Coelho stands to lose a vote in parliament on his government programme, which is likely to happen on Tuesday or Wednesday.
The prime minister would then lose his job. Such a government collapse would be the first since 1978 and would put Cavaco Silva in a quandary as the constitution does not clearly say what happens next.
Normally, Cavaco Silva could dissolve parliament and call new elections - an option he has called the "atomic bomb" for its power to encourage rival factions to seek compromise. But the timing of a separate presidential vote in January means he is constitutionally barred from doing so.
That leaves Cavaco Silva either with the choice of inviting Socialist leader Antonio Costa to form a government or keeping Passos Coelho's government in a caretaker capacity until new elections can be held in June.
If he stands by his criticism of the hard left, it is difficult to see him putting a government including the Communists and Left Bloc in power.
But any centre-right government with caretaker status would be a "lame duck" administration that would just pay bills and struggle to pursue the reforms and encourage the investment which Portugal needs to pursue its tentative economic recovery.
