The BJP has set the tone for the 2024 Lok Sabha election by scoring a thumping victory in Gujarat, decimating the Congress and other parties in the fray. The BJP romped home with 156 seats, while Congress managed to win just 17 seats, followed by AAP’s five. This BJP victory has been so convincing that it managed a record margin in its 27 years in power in Gujarat.
Move to Himachal Pradesh, and the equation shifts towards Congress. In what is seen as a consolation victory against the Gujarat drubbing, the Congress won 40 seats in HP, with BJP recording 25 and AAP drawing a blank. The Gujarat result, however, has overshadowed Congress’ victory in the hilly state. A closer look into the past shows that Himachal has had a tradition of anti-incumbency since 1980, with two parties switching positions after one term in office. Also, the BJP lost here because of internal factionalism, which saw eight of its ten ministers end up on the losing side.
The BJP managed to woo back all constituents who turned away from the party at the 2017 poll. On the flip side, Congress failed to consolidate its encouraging 2017 result, where it got 77 seats against the 99 of the BJP. The BJP had lost 16 from its previous tally then, while the Congress gained 16, giving it the best-ever result in Gujarat in 32 years. The talking point now is about Congress failing to bridge the gap.
Another worrying point for the Congress is the emergence of the Aam Aadmi Party which managed to eat into the opposition space and win five seats. The trend is apparent; we also saw that in Goa earlier this year. Party chief and Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal was quick to announce that AAP has now emerged as a national party.
While the BJP flies higher, the Congress will have to introspect again and learn lessons from the Gujarat debacle. It will have to ponder over the much-hyped and prioritised Bharat Jodo Yatra. Was this Yatra a misadventure that let the advantage slip out of the party’s hands? While Congress persisted that the Yatra aimed to unify people across India, the party leadership continued to walk that talk, mindful of the electoral battles in the background.
State elections are a barometer to measure the pulse of the electorate. And results like the one in Gujarat will have a ripple effect playing on voters’ minds elsewhere to the extent that the confidence in the Congress will be further eroded. Congress should have deployed all its energies in Gujarat and attempted to increase its footprint because this is where Modi could face his biggest electoral embarrassment. Instead, the reverse has happened, and Congress has conceded defeat without even offering a close fight.
While Congress has to learn its lessons from these elections, there are a few points to consider for the BJP. The BJP may have jumped to a new high in Gujarat; however, the Himachal story shows that the brand Modi is not universally accepted, even in States ruled by BJP. This is where the Congress should get its consolation as they gear up for another battle in Madhya Pradesh.
