The buzz of an assembly election was missing, but the much-awaited Panaji and Valpoi by-poll where fortunes of both BJP and Congress are at stake, saw an impressive 70 and 80 per cent voter turnout respectively. The result is likely to go on expected lines, but it's now a battle of numbers for all candidates. Manohar Parrikar is riding high with his allies and political heavyweights rallying behind him, while Congress candidate Girish Chodankar is counting big on the Bhandari-Bahujan vote and the minority Catholic resentment against the current dispensation, besides the AAP vote share.
In terms of numbers, history is not on BJP's side. The party has seen a considerable decline in a time span of six years. In 2012, Parrikar had polled 11,086 votes while in 2015 Sidharth Kuncalienker garnered 9989 votes, a decline by 1,097. In the 2017 election, there was a further decline of 2,065 when Sidharth polled 7924. Congress, on the other hand, had a mixed share of vote. In 2012 when Yatin Parekh contested on the party ticket he managed to poll 5018 votes while in 2015 Surendra Furtado got 4621 - a marginal drop of 397 votes, despite a spirited campaign against him by Babush Monserrate who backed BJP's Sidharth. Interestingly, the Babush factor didn't help the BJP much. The Taleigao strongman however turned the equation drastically for the Congress in 2017 polling 6855 votes, a massive jump of 2,234. For the statistics, Panaji had polled an identical 78 per cent in both 2012 and 2017 while Valpoi too had similar voting percentage of 88 in 2012 and 2017.
This time around, Congress is battling for pride and a count of close to 5,000 in Panaji should immensely bolster the sagging morale of the party. A high vote count will also establish the wave of public resentment against the current dispensation. With the BJP putting together all its might after roping in allies for its campaign against the door-to-door strategy of Girish, much remains to be seen if the coalition partners could get the BJP those numbers. What would be closely watched is the Babush factor, although the 2015 poll doesn't paint a rosy picture of the Taleigao strongman. Congress is also banking on the AAP vote on the premise that these voters form part of the block which is not in sync with the ruling party. Valmiki Naik contesting on AAP ticket had pocketed 1944 votes in 2017. Goa Suraksha Manch (GSM) will play its part too. In Anand Shirodkar, the GSM has not only fielded its president but also a RSS strongman. He is expected to pull off a share from the BJP voters, which again will work against the saffron party. The results may be a forgone conclusion for the BJP, but for the Congress it's the numbers that count.
