It’s advantage India for now. New Delhi is expected to convey to the US about its decision to go ahead with the Rs 40,000 crore deal with Russia to procure S-400 Triumf air defence missile systems. This despite the fact that such a move could invite American sanctions. On the other side of the border, the US has gone ahead with a cut of 300 million USD of security assistance to Pakistan, a decision which was announced in January this year.
India’s move on the S-400 ahead of the upcoming ‘two-plus-two’ talks with US is a bold one, for the fact it comes against the backdrop of sanctions from the Trump administration for engaging in defence procurement and intelligence exchanges with Russia which are banned under Countering America’s Adversaries through Sanctions Act.
India ultimately may get a waiver in this case. But the fact that the S-400 deal has reached an advanced stage, almost towards closure, implies that India never feared the consequences while pursuing the deal, much like its nuclear tests. While a waiver of sanctions would remove one of the friction points in bilateral ties between India and
US, there would still be an element of distrust between
both nations.
On the other hand, the S-400 move only reaffirms the long-standing trust between India and Russia, a nation which has stood out as a reliable partner in New Delhi’s defence requirement for ages. All eyes will be now on the 2+2 talks on September 6 when External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj and Defence Minister Nirmala Sitharaman host US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Defence Secretary James Mattis in
New Delhi.
While India has set its agenda, Pakistan stands at crossroads with US going ahead with its aid cut. This comes at a time when the newly sworn-in Prime Minister Imran Khan is planning to rope in foreign experts to rebuild Pakistan’s economy. The rhetoric on both sides leading up to Pompeo’s visit doesn’t hold much promise but it remains to be seen how Pakistan engages the US team during their Islamabad stopover.
It is only last month that both governments had heated exchanges over wording of a phone conversation between Imran Khan and Pompeo, soon after the swearing-in. While Khan has spoken in favour of Afghan reconciliation and peaceful relationship with India, he has been treading a cautious path, mindful of the fact that he cannot cross the line of control set by the powerful military. It must be remembered that Khan has been a very vocal critic of America’s conditional aid and had always slammed the nation of misplaced priorities over national security.
While Khan now desperately needs the money to rebuild Pakistan, US want a firm commitment on the promised war on terror, and it comes as no surprise that Trump has used the financial punishment to bring Pakistan in line. It remains to be seen if there is any reconciliation happening.
