Statistics paint a grim picture for the current crop of legislators. According to data, nearly half of the members of the Legislative Assembly have been rejected at elections since the 1999 result. Out of the 40 seats, 23 MLAs lost in that year, while subsequent elections in 2002, 2007, 2012 and 2017 saw 17, 16, 18 and 19 members voted out, respectively.
These figures portray a grim situation at the 2022 elections, apart from the fact that ties between elected representatives and the electorate haven’t been at their best in recent times. If we may recall, people have taken cudgels against MLAs on issues ranging from environment, welfare and even Covid-related issues. The BJP has reasons to worry because it has been facing the wrath of people over controversial policy decisions it has taken lately, some of which the government had to retract.
Against the backdrop of the trend of rejecting 50 per cent sitting MLAs Chief Minister Pramod Sawant's statement in early October that all BJP sitting MLAs won't be given tickets in the forthcoming elections makes sense. If we may recall, Transport Minister Mauvin Godinho, while citing the anti-incumbency factor, has also been rooting for a 50 per cent revamp.
Sawant's announcement that tickets will be decided after a review of each MLA's performance and after considering their connection with the people may make sense. The party's internal survey is expected to provide the leadership with crucial insights, but the practicality of the situation could trigger a wave of rebellion within the party, more so when there are rehabilitation options readily available in opposition ranks.
The CM will have to reflect on the past while bringing about a change, especially in constituencies where there are multiple choices. With major players from the Congress and the MGP joining the BJP, the dilemma would be on resting 'outsiders' who helped the government see through the term of five years and decide on whether to recall or sideline leaders drubbed in 2017. It may be noted that six out of the nine Cabinet ministers in the 2012 BJP government had to bite the dust at the 2017 elections. Top names like Laxmikant Parsekar, Dilip Parulekar, Mahadev Naik, Dayanand Mandrekar and Rajendra Arlekar. While Arlekar is shunted to Himachal Pradesh as governor of that State, it is to be seen how BJP negotiates with others whom it is reluctant to give tickets.
In an era where leaders are threatening to take independent decisions and drive hard bargains, like in the case of Utpal Parrikar, the BJP leadership would find it extremely challenging to navigate through the situation and yet hold its flock together. On the flip side, opposition parties like Aam Aadmi Party and Trinamool Congress will be emboldened by the election trends of past elections because they are not carrying similar baggage of candidates.
Given the ground situation, the 2022 election is expected to be a barometer gauging public resentment and frustration. It would not be surprising if more than 50 per cent of the current legislators are sent packing. In light of this, it would be interesting to see how the BJP leadership goes about picking the team.
