The BJP cannot have high expectations from the 10 new Congress recruits to enroll new party members from their respective constituencies, not even the 500 they are expecting from each of them. The very fact that the BJP leadership has gone soft on the breakaway Congress group indicates that the saffron party understands the ground realities, but they must understand that MLAs shifting loyalties doesn’t mean there is going to be an exodus of party workers too.
The disloyal Congress MLAs will have no face to approach their constituents and make a pitch for BJP membership, because majority of them are from areas primarily dominated by the minorities where there’s resentment already built up against the BJP-led government. The BJP may discount the public discontent part on the premise that party-hopping MLAs have won at the recent bypoll. That however can’t be a yardstick for defectors. Chief Minister Pramod Sawant and his leadership team know the undercurrents and what was required to pull off those victories in Mandrem and Shiroda. Despite the sweat and toil and the huge outpouring of goodies and money on all sides, results were never predictable till they were announced.
The biggest challenge the 10 MLAs are now facing is to ensure that their goodwill with workers and supporters is not dented beyond rapprochement. Vote-banks will, per se, not shift entirely along with defecting MLAs and more especially in Congress strongholds where party affiliations always take precedence over individual charisma. The 10 MLAs, by switching allegiances, may have struck their own fortunes in the short term, but the larger political landscape remains hazy.
Despite the political churn, the uncertainties of the future make it extremely difficult for MLAs to bargain on behalf of the BJP. And this is where the risks are. Majority of the MLAs who have moved to the BJP are uncertain of their own future with the BJP, and hence drumming up support for the saffron brigade could eventually mean digging their own political grave.
Unlike other political parties, the BJP membership is a serious party exercise which is well documented and even monitored through an in-house app. Once a member, an individual is bound by the principles and ideologies of the party and has to be actively involved in their programmes held from time to time. Members have to follow required procedures before quitting and joining any other party or organization. Are the ideologically-different former Congressmen reconciled to the hard realities? Are they ready to embrace the new environment and make BJP their permanent home?
On the flip side, the membership drive of the BJP could be a barometer for the party to gauge the seriousness and intent of the new MLAs. It would give them a fair picture of who could be genuinely ‘theirs’. Eventually, what BJP has assumed to be a modest target of 500 members each, could be a huge ask in the prevailing scenario. Time will tell.
