Indian stock markets begin the new week at an important stage after ending last week with small gains. The benchmark indices remained steady despite mixed global signals, while broader markets saw some profit booking, showing that investors are staying cautious.
Several domestic and global developments are expected to influence market sentiment in the coming days.
Q1 Business Updates
The focus is gradually shifting from economic factors to corporate earnings as companies begin releasing their June quarter business updates. Investors will closely watch sales trends, profit margins and management outlooks to assess the health of businesses.
Market experts believe expectations for the first quarter remain subdued due to supply chain challenges, higher input costs and softer demand.
F&O Expiry
The NSE’s June derivatives expiry on Tuesday, along with quarterly portfolio rebalancing by institutional investors, could lead to increased market volatility. Traders are expected to adjust their positions, resulting in sharp movements during the week.
Auto Sales Data
Automobile companies will announce their June sales figures
on July 1. Investors will monitor demand across passenger vehicles, two-wheelers, commercial vehicles and tractors to understand consumer spending after the arrival of the monsoon. Strong sales could support auto stocks, while weak numbers may affect sentiment.
Monsoon Progress
The progress of the southwest monsoon remains an important factor for the markets. Good rainfall is expected to improve farm incomes, boost rural demand and support sectors such as FMCG, automobiles and other rural-focused businesses.
Foreign Investor Activity
Foreign institutional investor (FII) flows will continue to influence market direction. Recent data suggests that heavy selling by overseas investors has slowed, helped by a stronger rupee and lower crude oil prices. However, experts believe it may take time before FIIs become consistent buyers again.
Crude Oil Prices
Oil prices remain an important global factor. Lower crude prices are generally positive for India as they reduce inflation, lower import costs and improve the country’s current account balance. Any sudden rise in oil prices due to geopolitical tensions could hurt market sentiment.
US Bond Yields
Investors will also keep an eye on US Treasury yields and the strength of the US dollar. Higher bond yields or a stronger dollar may reduce foreign investment in emerging markets like India, while lower yields could encourage fresh inflows into equities.
Global Economic Data
Several key economic indicators will be released this week, including manufacturing PMI and employment data from the US, as well as economic updates from China. These figures will provide fresh clues about global economic growth and the future path of interest rates.
Technical Outlook
According to market analysts, the Nifty faces strong resistance near the 24,200 level. A sustained move above this mark could push the index towards the 24,450-24,600 range. On the downside, immediate support is seen at 24,000 and 23,770.
Bank Nifty continues to outperform the broader market and remains above its key moving averages. The index faces resistance between 59,000 and 59,300, while support is expected around 57,500 and 57,000.
