the goan I network
PANAJI
On the face of it, the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has put up a brave face. Before the elections they claimed that their ‘internal survey’ of around 10,000 respondents placed them with a 42% vote share and 24 seats. But after polling, more ‘clues’ and plain speak, party’s insiders say a more realistic figure would be in the region of four seats. Interestingly, the seat of Cuncolim where their chief ministerial candidate Elvis Gomes is contesting isn’t one among their ‘sure’ seats but ranks in the second tier in their hierarchy of confidence.
Sources within the party, speaking to The Goan, have said that the party fancies its chances in four seats -- Curchorem, Cortalim, Mormugão and Benaulim.
Cuncolim and Velim are two seats where the party has filed (unofficially) under the category of “possible”, while Panaji and Taleigao have been filed under “maybe”.
Other constituencies where the party expects to make a dent include Ravindra Velip in Sanguem, Surel Tilve in Marcaim and in Mandrem where the insiders believe the party will succeed in, if anything, halving the winning candidate’s margin.
A big clue, was dropped on Wednesday, when the AAP promised to “carry on battle to save culture, heritage and Goa”.
Statements like these are issued once a party concedes defeat at the hustings and while also promising to introspect and win the next elections.
“There are several things that have worked in our favour and some mistakes we have made on account of which we are sure of some seats and not so sure of others,” a source within the AAP has said.
In Curchorem, the party is banking on the activism background of its activist James Fernandes, the backing he has received from the Mission Bypass movement and the fact that the votes could split between the BJP candidate Nilesh Cabral and the Goa Suraksha Manch candidate Shyam Satardekar.
“He has run a very positive campaign, received good support, Kejriwal even visited the constituency. Besides this, he has a clean image and has shown history of wanting to work for the betterment of society,” the source said.
In Cortalim, the party has put its faith in Olencio Simoes who, they believe will inherit the legacy of Matanhy Saldanha at the cost of his aunt and Matanhy’s wife Alina. Simoes will still have to overcome the hurdles of Nelly Rodrigues, Ramakant Borkar of the United Goans’ Party and Mariano Rodrigues of the Congress.
In neighbouring Mormugao constituency, the party believes that disgust with the incumbent Milind Naik and the experience of former MLA Karl Vaz will help them sail through.
In Benaulim, the party is basing its judgement solely on the reception received for its candidate Royla’s meetings.
“All the meetings organised by Royla and her team were hugely attended in areas like that Cavelossim, Carmona and even Seraulim she and
the party has received huge support. Save for two booths in Varca, where it is evident we didn’t make inroads, the rest of the constituency we expect to do well,” another source said.
Crucially, in Cuncolim, the party believes that the money poured in by other candidates and parties may work to their detriment, while they could
AAP fancies 4, not sure of Cuncolim
Continued from P1
still pull it off on the popularity of Elvis Gomes.
“Besides this, Elvis didn’t get much time to campaign within his constituency given that he was bogged down with party work and the zhadu yatra,” the source said.
In Velim, the party believes that with 12 candidates in the fray, the spin of the roulette could end in their favour but that it was a constituency that was extremely difficult to be sure about.
In other constituencies like that of Panaji and Taleigao, the party insiders say they have conducted an impressive campaign and were able to connect with the people and especially the youth, winning will be difficult.
If anything, the first clue that Aam Aadmi Party in Goa isn’t so sure about itself comes from the survey. The figures which say that they will get 42% vote share and 24 seats isn’t backed by history. In Delhi for example, the party won only 54.3% of the vote share but more than 90% of the seats. At the Centre, the BJP government was voted with a full majority on the basis of only 31% vote share.
A vote share of 42% should ideally result in a much larger share of the seats.
“No doubt there was an anti-incumbency wave, but in most cases 60% of the disgruntled people will strategically vote for the strongest opponent,” the AAP source said.
