PANAJI
The third Mood of the State survey conducted jointly by Prudent Media, The Goan Everyday and Goan Varta has shown that the anti-incumbency factor against the government is dropping rapidly with every passing day.
In the second survey conducted in mid-October, about 70 per cent of the voters had said they would like to see a change in government. This has dropped to 54 per cent, a clear indication that the Opposition is still in a disarray and unable to take advantage of the voter’s inclination for change.
Significantly, 48.6 per cent said they would like a new MLA to represent their constituencies, a tendency which could spell doom for sitting MLAs, especially those who have not performed.
The survey was conducted over a period of four days last week and involved door-to-door interviews of 100 voters in each constituency. The sample was spread across every booth to ensure uniformity and improve accuracy of the survey. The split between the BJP and MGP was also factored in.
Of the 12 constituencies being presented in the third of this three-part series, the BJP is a clear winner in five. The MGP, which had made a strong claim for the Bicholim constituency, before talks with the BJP broke down, is in a good position to wrest it, provided Naresh Sawal joins the party.
What could hurt the BJP, though, is that two of its MLAs “ Alina Saldanha from Cortalim and Sports Minister Ramesh Tawadkar, who represents Canacona, are no longer safe. This will definitely reduce the final tally of the ruling party which hopes to win 25 seats in 2017.
These loses are off-set by gains in Cumbarjua and Dabolim where, Pandurang Madkaikar and Mauvin Godinho, appear to be heading for victories on BJP tickets.
Another likely set-back for the BJP could be in Cuncolim, where the Congress is placed as the front runner provided it remains united. This comes as a shocker for the Aam Aadmi Party where its chief ministerial candidate, Elvis Gomes is canvasing for his candidacy.
Glen Ticlo, who defeated Dayanand Narvekar in 2012 seems to be cruising along with no significant leader to take him on so far.
In Curchorem and Calangute, Nilesh Cabral and Michael Lobo respectively enjoy maximum support and are ahead of the pack.
With the Congress yet to announce its candidate in Benaulim, Churchill Alemao of the NCP is a clear winner and could look forward to a five-year stint in the Assembly. Reginaldo Lawrence, who is a two-time MLA could look forward to another term, but this time it looks like he needs the Congress more than it needs him.
In Fatorda, where Vijai Sardesai is battling the BJP on one front and the Congress on the other, the BJP is at a disadvantage and the sitting MLA is in a good position to retain this seat.
