PANAJI
The survey conducted by Prudent-Department of Management Studies, Goa University has not thrown up a clear winner, but the BJP could still emerge as the single largest party and find itself in a position to form government with support from the MGP.
In 2012, the BJP won 21 seats, thanks to a very strong anti-Congress wave. This time it might have to contented with 17 or 18 seats and would require the support of the MGP, which could end up with 3-4 seats.
Although the Congress, which won 9 seats in 2012 is expected to better its performance and win 12-13 seats, its chief failing will be its inability to forge a grand alliance with like-minded parties.
The surprise package for the 2017 elections could be the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) which appears to be strong enough to win 4-5 seats, a sufficiently large number to make it king maker.
One of the take-aways from the survey is that people are not quite pleased with the electing independent candidates and would prefer to vote for established political parties.
The biggest drawback for the Congress is that it is not seen as the lead opposition party and this has resulted in fragmentation of the non-BJP vote. AAP is likely to be the biggest gainer from the drift in the Congress.
In 2012, the Congress had a vote share of 30.78 percent. This is expected to fall to 21.3 per cent, which means the party is going to get squeezed out of certain constituencies. The high point is that concentration of votes in a limited number of seats will take its tally up.
The 10 per cent loss in vote share of the Congress is expected to get transferred to AAP, which is gaining ground in the State.
At the last hustings, the BJP contested 28 seats but picked up a vote share of 34.68 per cent. This segment has remained intact.
The BJP also appears to be winning the perception battle. The number of voters who believe it will form the next government is the highest, while the Congress, perhaps on account of its decline in the rest of the country and lack of leadership in the State, is not perceived as an alternative to the BJP.
The biggest threat to the BJP, at this point of time, is opposition unity, but with the Congress, AAP and Goa Forward Party unable to find a meeting ground, a united front seems next to impossible.
For the MGP, the only win-win situation is if it continues its alliance with the BJP. It could win three to four seats, but in the absence of an alliance it could be pushed back to one-seat party.
Another trend that emerged from the survey is the absence of strong leadership in the State. While Manohar Parrikar continues to lead the pack, Chief Minister Laxmikant Parsekar has nearly caught up. However, the chief minister, who is likely to retain his seat, could face a serious problem if opposition unity becomes a reality.
The surprise though, was Vijai Sardesai who is now perceived as a leader above Pratapsingh Rane, Vishwajit Rane and Digambar Kamat. However, the Fatorda MLA would face a tough challenge in
his constituency should the Congress put up a strong candidate.
