PANAJI
The third Mood of the State Survey conducted jointly by Prudent Media, The Goan Everyday and Goan Varta gave a strong indication that Goa could be heading for a hung Assembly in 2017 with no single party or combination going past the half-way mark.
The BJP will emerge as the single largest party with a tally of 15 to 16 seats which is much less than the 21 it won in 2012.
However, of the six constituencies where the situation is yet to crystalize in favour of a candidate, four are represented by BJP candidates. Victory in any of these constituencies will take its tally closer to the half-way mark.
Since October, the Congress has gained, survey results indicated. The party is now poised to win around 12 to 13 seats. The Congress is also set to regain its pre-eminent position in Salcete where it is slated to win six seats, four more that what it won in 2012.
It appears that the BJP is not the only party to suffer from the break-up of the alliance. The MGP, which won three seats in 2012 might find its tally reduced to two. While Sudin Dhavalikar is a sure winner from Madkai, a cloud of uncertainty hangs over Priol and Ponda. The only silver lining on the this dark cloud is that the party is in a position to win Bicholim provided Naresh Sawal throws in his lot with the MGP.
Vijai Sardesai’s Goa Forward will not go beyond two seats with Rohan Khaunte and himself likely to be the only winners.
The Aam Aadmi Party, which is projecting itself as a party which does not practice traditional politics is poised to win two seats “ St Cruz, where it is filling the vacuum created by the departure of Babush Monserrate and Taleigao which has been neglected by his wife Jennifer.
The only consolation for the NCP is the seat of Benaulim where Churchill Alemao is a front runner.
The biggest drawback for the BJP is that the chief minister's constituency of Mandrem is in the ‘uncertain’ list of six. The other five are Sanvordem, where infighting could undo the BJP, Canacona, Cortalim, Ponda, where the Congress stands to gain from a split in the BJP-MGP vote and Priol.
