PANAJI
Member of the expert committee on Covid management and oncologist at Manipal Hospital (Goa) Dr Shekhar Salkar has predicted that Goa’s Covid graph is likely to peak around January 20 with the possibility of recording 10,000 to 15,000 new cases every day.
Dr Salkar believes that Goa’s Covid graph has reached midway by now with over 3,000 new cases being recorded and the daily positivity rate crossing 30 per cent.
“As per my projection, compared to what we studied during the last wave, this wave of Omicron variant must be around three to four times that of Delta variant. The infectivity rate of Omicron is higher. We are expecting Goa’s cases to peak over the next eight days. Around January 20, we will be seeing around 10,000 to 15,000 patients per day. Following this, the cases will come down,” he stated.
On Thursday, the Directorate of Health Services recorded 3,728 new cases of Covid-19 from among 9,459 samples tested in the last 24 hours. Goa’s active caseload has now hit 16,887 while the daily positivity rate has touched 39.41 per cent. Additionally, a total of four Covid related deaths were recorded. Since the outbreak of the pandemic in March 2020, Goa has recorded a cumulative death toll of 3,543 while the cumulative total cases have crossed two lakh-mark.
Having studied the second wave of the pandemic very closely, Dr Salkar has warned that the period spanning over the next eight to 10 days is very crucial to the state because even though Omicron variant is less lethal, there will be tremendous pressure on the medical infrastructure.
“Our doctors and sisters are getting infected. With reduced staff and increasing admissions, hospitals could come under pressure. If everybody starts coming to the hospital, the system could collapse. It is very important for everyone to follow Covid safety norms now,” he cautioned.
Dr Salkar further said that the only good thing that could eventually happen is that the number could plateau like it has in Mumbai.
“We are around 10 to 15 days behind Mumbai. By January 23 to 24, new cases in Goa could also begin to reduce. The admissions are very much under control. The mortality rate is very less due our excellent vaccination drive so far,” he pointed out.
Presently, around 110 to 115 Covid patients are admitted in government and private hospitals. Goa Medical College and Hospital, Bambolim has around 85 Covid patients. Only 35 of these require oxygen and the others are admitted mainly because they suffer from comorbid conditions. Out of the 35 patients, 25 are on standard oxygen, two are on High Flow Nasal Oxygen, two are on ventilator and three are on non-invasive ventilator. Out of 14,000-odd active cases, only seven are critical because of co-morbid conditions.
If the number of people on oxygen continues to rise to 200 oxygen beds, the authorities are likely to tighten the restrictions and more government hospitals will be pressed into force.
“The government will have to consider imposing a total curfew or some other similar restrictions if around 400 oxygen beds are occupied. But chances of oxygen requirement are extremely low. Most patients are recovering at home within four to five days,” Dr Salkar has said. He advised those who are isolating at home to take good care and those who are not vaccinated fully to get it done immediately as it reduces the chances of complications and mortality.
