MAPUSA
Weak moisture-laden winds over the Arabian Sea, the lingering influence of El Niño and the absence of rain-bearing convective systems over the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal have combined to leave Goa with a significantly weak monsoon in June, according to former IMD official and ex-National Institute of Oceanography (NIO) scientist Dr M R Ramesh Kumar.
Although the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast a yellow alert till July 3 and rainfall activity has picked up over the past week, Goa continues to face a rainfall deficit of around 45 per cent for June, improved from nearly 60 per cent earlier in the month.
"The winds that bring moisture from the Arabian Sea and Indian Ocean to the peninsula, including Goa, have become very, very weak and therefore we experienced less rain," Dr Kumar said.
"Secondly, the overriding effect of El Niño has cast a gloom on rainfall activity not only in Goa but across the country. There are hardly any convective systems over the Bay of Bengal or the Arabian Sea, and these systems are what bring rain," he added.
Despite the poor start to the season, he said there is no reason to lose hope as July and August are traditionally Goa's peak monsoon months.
"Even one or two days of widespread heavy rainfall can substantially reduce the deficit. July and August can easily make up for the shortfall and overcome the problem," he said, adding that the Indian Ocean Dipole will also influence rainfall during the remainder of the monsoon.
Dr Kumar said the erratic nature of rainfall witnessed this year is part of a larger trend. While Goa normally records around 21 rainy days in June – defined as days receiving at least 2.5 mm of rainfall – the State has witnessed nearly eight to nine non-rainy days this month.
"This does not augur well. It shows the erratic trend," he said, pointing out that even traditionally high-rainfall areas such as Valpoi and Sanguem, located along the foothills of the Western Ghats, have received unusually low rainfall. According to IMD data, Valpoi has recorded the lowest rainfall in the State at 210.8 mm till June 28, while Canacona has received the highest at 897.2 mm.
However, he stressed that reducing transmission losses by repairing leaking water pipelines would significantly improve water availability and reduce wastage.
